Will Iran Walk Away from Nuclear Deal?

by Lawrence A. Franklin
November 1, 2015 at 4:00 am

https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/6797/walk-away-nuclear-deal

The world powers are now experiencing what it means to negotiate with Persian theocrats. All is negotiable; nothing is ever finally decided. Words never commit one to action.
Iran demands right to implement a phased plan of centrifuge expansion to 150,000 over a period of 15 years.
Iran demands that no sanctions are to be leveled against it because of alleged support for terrorism or human rights violations.
Iran demands that it must be free to explore all future advances in nuclear enrichment technology.

The world powers are now experiencing what it means to negotiate with Persian theocrats. All is negotiable; nothing is ever finally decided. Words never commit one to action. Changing circumstances vitiate the substance of any prior commitment, leaving the door open to additional demands. Although the Islamic Republic insists that it be recognized as a normal member of the international community, it will continue to behave as if it is not bound by global norms.

Despite Iran's apparent acceptance of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), known as the "Iran Deal," after the document's submission to the relevant state bureaucracies, these institutions have agreed to it only on a conditional basis. The JCPOA was approved by Iran's Consultative Assembly (Majlis), the Council of Guardians, the Supreme National Security Council and by the Office of the Leader. These seeming approvals can tempt those who desire the implementation of the nuclear deal to assume falsely that the bellicose rhetoric of Iran's leaders and the continued opposition to the JCPOA are just face-saving turns of phrase.

This same shallow mode of thinking assumes that last week's launch of an experimental ballistic missile by Iran was a bone thrown in the direction of hardliners who oppose the nuclear deal. Iran's leaders seem to have calculated that the missile test would not invite a reassessment by the P5+1 signatories, despite the fact that the launch was a clear violation of the JCPOA. Iran's leaders were proven correct: both Russia and China refused to condemn the missile test at the United Nations.

The publication of the letter of October 21 by Iran's Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Khamenei, to Iran's President, Hassan Rouhani, leaves little doubt that Iran is now demanding fundamental changes to the JCPOA. The conditions spelled out by the Leader will derail the timetable for the document's implementation probably beyond President Obama's term of office. In part, Tehran most likely wants to embarrass the U.S. and President Obama personally by denying him a legacy-related political victory, just as Tehran apparently wants to embarrass them by arresting yet another American hostage two weeks ago, American-Iranian business executive, Siamak Namazi. The hostage count of Americans now imprisoned in Iran is now five: Namazi, Washington Post journalist Jason Rezaian, Pastor Saeed Abedini, former U.S. Marine Amir Hekmati and Robert Levinson.

Khamenei's letter indicates that he will not approve implementation of the JCPOA unless the following conditions are met:

The U.S. and European nations must draft a letter promising to end all possibility of "sanctions snapback."
The West must lift -- not "suspend" -- all sanctions immediately and permanently.
The International Atomic Energy Association (IAEA) must issue an irreversible declaration ending any future investigation into alleged military dimensions of Iran's nuclear programs.
Iran will do nothing to alter the heavy water (plutonium) reactor at Arak until the signatories of the JCPOA produce an alternative usage plan.
Iran will not begin shipping out of country any of its enriched uranium unless the signatories agree to deliver uranium to Iran (albeit at a lower level of enrichment).
Iran demands right to implement a phased plan of centrifuge expansion to 150,000 over a period of 15 years.
No sanctions are to be leveled against Iran because of alleged support for terrorism or human rights violations.
Iran must be free to explore all future advances in nuclear enrichment technology.

Iran's leadership seems to have decided it will be able to endure a modified version of its "resistance economy," and that widening fissures among the P5+1 signatories of the JCPOA can be exploited to end its isolation. Rouhani, with Khamenei's endorsement, evidently calculates that Iran's economy will improve with or without the nuclear deal. Since taking office, Rouhani's cabinet has attempted to institute economic reforms designed to make Iran less vulnerable to sanctions. Rouhani, for instance, has dispensed with former President Ahmadinejad's populist polices of extensive cash grants and subsidies to provinces in rural Iran. Additionally, Rouhani has re-empowered the Budget Control Office, which had been politically sidelined by Ahmadinejad. Rouhani has also reduced somewhat the galloping inflation of the Ahmadinejad era, which had reached about 30% [1] by appointing professionally qualified fiscal officers to monitor adherence to the government's five-year plan. He also has sought to reduce corruption by discontinuing the practice of appointing unqualified cronies from the Basij militia and Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) -- a practice routine in Ahmadinejad's administrations.[2] Under his presidency, however, executions have skyrocketed to a degree that Amnesty International called "staggering," especially in view of trials it calls "blatantly unfair." In just the first months of 2015, accord to Amnesty International, nearly 700 people have been put to death.

The proponents of this so-called "resistance economy" in Iran seem to believe the country will be aided by increased trade with Russia and China and investment from other countries -- including West European ones -- that no longer feel bound by the U.S.-orchestrated sanctions regime. One prominent Iranian-born economist estimates that sanctions account for only about one-fifth of the downturn in Iran's economy during the last few years.[3] A more significant factor in the economy's downturn may be the continued decline in the price of oil, which accounts for the largest share of Iran's exports and hard currency earnings. Perhaps the change felt most keenly by the individual Iranian citizen has been the impact of the plummeting decline in the purchasing power of the Rial, which lost about 80% against the dollar in the last years of the Ahmadinejad presidency.[4]

It is probably safe to assume that the Western negotiators of the JCPOA have been introduced to the Middle East bazaar method of negotiation: After an agreement has been concluded, it becomes a basis for further demands.

If Iran succeeds in garnering the benefits of even partial relief of sanctions, and if it attracts additional foreign investment as well as increased international commerce, it will ignore the JCPOA altogether. The only improbable question is: Will Iran walk away before or after picking up its $150 billion?

Dr. Lawrence A. Franklin was the Iran Desk Officer for Secretary of Defense Rumsfeld. He also served on active duty with the U.S. Army and as a Colonel in the Air Force Reserve, where he was a Military Attaché at the U.S. Embassy in Israel.

[1] House of Commons Library: Briefing Paper- Iran 25 October 2015. p.3.

[2] Iran Pulse Al-Monitor: Iran Section re Ahmadinejad fiscal practices. See also Brandeis Professor Habibi's article: "The Economic Legacy of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad."

[3] Ala Hashami-Haeri, "Iran's Economy Will Continue to Grow With or Without a Nuclear Deal." Dr. Bijan Khajehpour of the Vienna-based Atieh International Consultancy informed his audience at Washington D.C.'s Woodrow Wilson Center that Iran's economy is now set to grow by 4%-5% even if U.S. sanctions are not lifted. He estimates that if Iran does receive the approximate 120 billion dollars of held capital that the economy could grow by 7%-8%. See also Ala Hashami-Haeri's NIAC 12 June 2015 Web Page Article: "Deal or No Deal-Iran's Economy Will Continue to Grow."

[4] House of Commons Library: Briefing Paper-Iran 25 October 2015. p.4.

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Related Topics: Iran, Iranian Nuclear Program

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10 Reader Comments

Empress Trudy • Nov 3, 2015 at 11:12

In simple terms, the West, lead by Barack Obama never wanted a 'deal'. No change in practical status was sought. What they sought was a piece of paper they could bring back home for their own legacies. No more no less. Nor is it even a matter of deluding themselves that their own tradition of rule of law translates into a document which in and of itself accomplishes anything. No, what they were after and what they achieved was a victory for their own domestic politics. The Iranians for their part never sought a deal because, well, they 'do' deals. Anyone who's followed the Iranian program from its earliest days with the Germans will understand that what the Iranians want is to constantly change the 'deal'. This is why the Germans ultimately walked away and the Russians took their place. The Iranians could not stop arguing over different or better terms, even when they got 100% of what they previously asked for. Everything was always tossed aside and the Iranians would demand something else. It's hardwired in their culture to do this. The upside is that it slows down progress. But the downside is that they are utterly indifferent to what you need and what they themselves say.

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Albert • Nov 2, 2015 at 05:09

Sign a treaty with the aim to be in a better position at a later time to strike and destroy the enemy a la Mohammed.

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Peter Terry • Nov 1, 2015 at 23:04

Iran's government has no intention of actually implementing any agreement with the West. Since when do you actually follow through with any promises made to Satan? They wanted their frozen assets back, they wanted sanctions lifted, they wanted their trade partners to be able to work with them openly once again, and they wanted to show the whole world how stupid, how naive, and how gutless the West has become. Any they have succeeded, handsomely. If Western governments have any self-respect left, they will hold Iran to the terms they agreed to...and if they back out, so be it. Hit them with tougher sanctions than ever. Who needs Iranian oil? The fact is...nobody. There is plenty of oil to be had elsewhere in the world. For that matter, there is too much currently available, and that's one of the reasons for the plummeting price. They were offered a deal...they can take it or leave it.

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Fred • Nov 1, 2015 at 19:35

If anything Iran had success without firing a shot. It has won on every point by fooling Obama/Kerry and the faceless of the EU. If anything Iran got assurances it can go ahead to do whatever it wants no restriction and on top it will receive billions as a reward. Reading the above I do get cold shivers up my spine, a reminder of how Hitler disregarded the Versailles treaty to forge ahead with rearmament that led to a disastrous war. Did anybody watch the fine treaty print. I think not. Another treacherous US, EU, Iran treaty to improve the belligerence of Iran. Already proxy wars are on, what chance Peace ???? Obama, what a disaster.

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Keeper Of The Crystals • Nov 1, 2015 at 17:44

How gullible is the rest of the world? Khamenei will demand that Iran continue along its own planned path with total disregard to any agreements signed. That anyone could be so gullible as to hand over $150B to Iran, whose religious leader has an open hatred and disrespect for all outside of Islam, surely needs to rethink the whole deal. The nuclear deal just shows to me that the world is prepared to be submissive to Iran's demands, Why? Why would anyone trust the most dangerous, hate filled fanatic that is Khamenei. Iran is a law unto itself, it will not abide by any agreements with the hated West, regardless of whose blood they are signed in.

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Stan Lee

Keeper Of The Crystals • Nov 2, 2015 at 12:46

Your question covers the whole charade played by Iran, with Kerry and Obama hanging on, each with different motivation. We know what Iran wants to accomplish, Kerry believes it's a measure of his relevance, Obama hallucinated about his greatness and is charging another windmill to demonstrate that he's the smartest one in this world. For Iran, at least we know whom it hates and they have hated us even before Tehran decided that the U.S. Marine barracks in Beirut,1983, was so poorly secured that 243 U.S. Marines and sailors paid with their lives when their building was blown-up by a jihadi in an explosive-laden dump truck.

Kerry still tastes the defeat of a failed presidential campaign, after he was so sure that he was the darling of the American people. He just couldn't digest the fact that Americans won't forget how he demonized U.S. forces serving at that time in Vietnam. The man cannot deal with reality, never could. Finally, we come to the third element and the man who has revived the term "Quisling." We have no idea how many times he, Obama, has rejected good advice from the most distinguished officers of our military. We do know that they've been "cashiered" from the services in order that their knowledge would not conflict with the one-man government of Barack H.Obama. He too, couldn't deal with reality, plus he's at least a devotee of Islam masquerading as a U.S. President who was elected by nothing but lies, deceit, and his concept of United States the nation. If he doesn't hate everything about the USA except the financial benefits of his office, then there are other words than "hate" we can use.

Summing it all up, especially in Obama's case, he has been a success in his agenda to weaken the United States. When he spoke often of "transformation",the gullible, ill-informed American electorate could only imagine that "transformation" was a measure of his good intentions for the American voter. Instead, those voters are revealed as ignoramuses who voted for a President whose past is carefully concealed to this day by the Democrat (Socialist) Party, and Obama remains a dilemma. He will remain so.

Shia Islam has outflanked Sunni Islam, and Obama has compromised America in the process. Kerry will still exist in a mental fog, and Iran can practically taste its power throughout the world. It could have been stopped, had those negotiating for America and the free world were not true to America's and Europe's security. Now, we, the USA, has been sentenced to war while a useless President still resides in the White House.
The Socialist movement (Democrats) plus weak Republicans who are hanging on to their cushy positions must be driven from the federal government.

Now, the same old politics won't do, we must rally as a nation, and fight for constitutional government, we are too far gone to continue allowing the Constitution to be further compromised. We, the people, are America's only option to preservation of the constitutional republic.

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Stan Lee • Nov 1, 2015 at 16:29

It's doubtful that all that time wasted at "the table" by Kerry with Obama in the background mean much to Iran. Iran was going to work on and develop nuclear bombs anyway. What was the Iranian motivation to bargain was that $150 billion they want released from sanctions. Russia is waiting for part of that to be paid for equipment and hardware it furnished (or will furnish) Iran. The Iranians are far better at bluffing and negotiating, than the two principals of the USA, Kerry and Obama. They actually thought they got the best of Iran, because neither of them had any idea what they were doing.

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Geoff • Nov 1, 2015 at 14:27

What is it about the so called "experts" who cite Talking Points, bend over backwards for EVIL, and continually put innocents in danger all for an IDEAL. To the West IDEOLOGY for the Leftist/Progressive/Socialist/Marxist has become and will always be their RELIGION.

History speaks loud and clear. Mankind, far too many, ignore every sign screaming out "danger around the next bend". These protectors of FREEDOM walk in it, surround themselves with it and even will eat it.

Their Utopian vision is cemented to their very core. They are prisoners to their IDELOGY where the ends always believed to be NOBLE, FAIR, COMPASSIONATE and CARING leads the innocents toward death and destruction.

Albert Einstein said it best when he defined INSANITY as "engaging in the same behavior over and over again, each and every time expecting a different result but each and every time getting the same result". That is Insanity. History MUST be learned or Man is fated to repeat it time after time.

First came WWI to be followed by WWII and within a few years the Korean Conflict. War wasn't done. Two Superpowers engage in a Cold War lasting for 40+ years. In that time frame the Vietnman War and many more conflicts destroying plus reaping chaos and mayhem. Take a breathe because history marches on and NOTHING has been learned.

Peace is a very fleeting concept tangled in front of many but really only embraced by the few.

21st Century has seen a decade and a half go by and still WAR rears its ugly head devouring anything and everything its its path. Race, ethnicity, gender and/or religion are all targets. There is no quarter only more death and destruction but fear not, there will mountains of TALK.

The Diplomats talk, then talk some more and want another meeting. While they talk, EVIL holding a blade in its hand motions upward with a mighty force and then next propels the blade downward toward the neck of an innocent. Another pool of blood stains the ground while the world bemoans the horror, looks on in a shock yet does NOTHING but TALK.

The Islamo-Fascist hordes are engaged in WWIII and their victims just want to talk. The Islamo-Fascists are pure TERROR and the very definition of EVIL who are on a mission from their God who chants to them to kill kill and kill the non-believers for your reward is heaven with 72 Virgins. Death is good and embrace for Allah.

Western Civilization bombarded on every side just wants a meeting. These misunderstood people just need jobs. America has overstepped it moral authority. Excuse, blame and/or denial is the fall back position of the "expert". They tell us over and over again that we need to understand how the West has used and abused people of color and our atonement is to UNDERSTAND our own immoral actions.

The clock keeps ticking, the innocents keeping dying, destruction coupled with chaos and mayhem keep on marching forward. The West wants to understand, feel EVIL's pain and TALK. EVIL laughs takes off the head of another innocent, destroys another monument, drives their car intopedestrians just out to enjoy a beautiful day minding their own business regardless of age or sex, blows up another building or shoots off more rockets and/or develops a nuclear weapon while the West scratches it head trying to figure out it can make things better.

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el • Nov 1, 2015 at 14:00

"The world powers are now experiencing what it means to negotiate with Persian theocrats."

No, the world is experiencing Obama's negotiating prowess, a man who's only prior experience is "Community Organizer". And, a man who does not listen to advice from his betters according to several people close to him.

Back at Columbia, Obama wrote an article for the school newspaper criticizing Reagan for negotiating with Russia while threatening them militarily.

Now, Obama has showed everyone 'how it's done'. He made it clear from the onset that the military option is not on the table. He even ensured that Israel was not in a position to act unilaterally.

Therefore, there is absolute NO reason for Iran to agree to anything.

Perhaps now we understand what "Reset" actually means.

There is no 'deal' as far as the Mullahs are concerned. Depending on who is elected in 2017, the Mullahs may change their tune very fast. Right now, they will take whatever ground they can.

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Harvey • Nov 1, 2015 at 11:36

The ruling Iranian elite have their own agenda, and it's not what Obama and the rest of the Western clowns would like.

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