"I want Iran to be a great and successful country but one that cannot have nuclear weapons," US President Donald J, Trump posted on Truth Social last week. "I would much prefer a Verified Nuclear Peace Agreement which will successfully let Iran grow and prosper."
These sentiments, while commendable, especially considering a distasteful alternative for Iran, are unfortunately delusional. The problem, of course, is that after seeing what happened when Libya's General Muammar Ghaddafi gave up nuclear weapons in 2003 and Ukraine gave up nuclear weapons in 1994, no one with an IQ above single digits would ever agree to give up nuclear weapons again – especially after so many decades of immense investment and just "weeks" from the project's successful completion.
Both Ghaddafi and Ukraine acted in good faith -- as opposed to Russia. In 1994, Russia, the United States and the United Kingdom signed the Budapest Memorandum, in which they promised to respect the territorial integrity of Ukraine, Belarus and Kazakhstan, and to refrain from the threat or use of force against those countries or their political independence, in exchange for the three former Soviet republics transferring their nuclear weapons stockpiles to Russia.
Of course, in February 2022, after seeing US President Joe Biden surrender Afghanistan to the Taliban and imply that a "minor incursion" into Ukraine would be acceptable, Russian President Vladimir Putin commenced a years-long, scorched-earth invasion of Ukraine.
Regrettably, like Russia, Iran has a long track record of deceit, obstructing investigations, and stalling to buy time. Iran's regime also has the potential to wait four years until Trump's term in office is over, then pick up where it left off.
The Iranian regime has recently praised U.S. President Donald Trump -- a gesture unheard of since the establishment of the Islamic Republic in 1979. This sudden shift is not a change of heart. It is a calculated strategy aimed at outmaneuvering Trump to ensure the regime's survival. For decades, Iran's Islamist clerics have built their rule on a foundation of anti-Americanism and anti-Semitism. The mullahs' newfound diplomatic overtures are nothing more than a deceptive ploy to buy time, ease sanctions, and protect their nuclear weapons program. The United States and its allies must not fall into this trap.
Since its inception, Iran's Islamist regime has defined itself by its hostility toward the United States and Israel. The chants of "Death to America" and "Death to Israel" have been a staple of Iran's political discourse for more than four decades. Tehran's ideological opposition to the West is not mere rhetoric; it has fueled real-world actions, including attacks on U.S. forces, hostage-taking, and funding and arming terrorist proxies across the Middle East and beyond. Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and its Quds Force, using Hezbollah, Hamas and the Houthis as their instruments of terror, have orchestrated deadly attacks on American civilians, allies, and troops.
Iran finds itself in its weakest position in decades. First, its strongest ally in the region, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, was overthrown and fled to Russia, leading to the collapse of one of Iran's key strongholds. At the same time, Tehran's most important regional proxies -- Hamas and Hezbollah -- have suffered significant setbacks at the hands of Israel.
Domestically, the Iranian regime faces perhaps its greater threat: its own people. The Iranian population, exhausted by decades of economic hardship, repression and corruption, is overwhelmingly opposed to the ruling clerics. Nationwide protests have erupted recently, with demonstrators calling for the end of the Islamic Republic. Men, women, students, workers and members of the middle class, risking their lives, have risen against the government. The regime responds with brutal crackdowns, but has been unable to silence the discontent.
Given these pressures, the mullahs running the regime have changed nothing but their rhetoric.
The Iranian regime has a long history of deception. In 2015, during the Obama administration, Iran accepted the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), commonly known as the "nuclear deal," which anyhow allowed it as many nuclear weapons as it could build, from October 2025. Even so, as soon as sanctions relief was granted in 2015, Iran funneled money into its terrorist proxies and continued developing its nuclear weapons in secret -- not investing in its people or improving their living conditions.
Iran's recent moves are part of the same playbook. The mullahs seek to lull the United States into a false sense of security. They undoubtedly hope that diplomatic engagement will allow them time to race to nuclear weapons breakout, or, at worst, another weak agreement that will enable them to rebuild their military. Whenever Iran gains financial or political leverage, it uses it against America and its allies. Since October 2023, Iran and its proxies have attacked US troops in the region more than 200 times.
Just as the world failed to contain Adolf Hitler's Germany before it overwhelmed Europe, dawdling through negotiations instead of failing to stop Iran now, before its nuclear breakout, could have catastrophic consequences. The West must support Israel in its efforts to dismantle Iranian military assets and work toward imposing the most severe sanctions possible, crippling the regime's ability to finance its aggression.
Iran's recent shift in tone is nothing more than a survival tactic. The ruling mullahs remain dedicated to the destruction of America and Israel. Allowing them any time and relief now only empowers them. Iran's nuclear facilities must be taken out, sanctions must be intensified, and the Iranian people's fight for freedom must be supported. Trump must not waste this opportunity.
Dr. Majid Rafizadeh, is a political scientist, Harvard-educated analyst, and board member of Harvard International Review. He has authored several books on the US Foreign Policy. He can be reached at dr.rafizadeh@post.harvard.edu
