Iran, led by the mullahs, is on the brink of crossing the nuclear weapons threshold. Once it reaches this milestone, the regime is presumably hoping that it would then be too hazardous for any country to stop it. It is critical to act decisively as soon as possible to stop Iran before it crosses that threshold. Failing to will only embolden a regime known for unremitting aggression at home and abroad.
The Iranian regime seeks to acquire the power to expand its ideological reach to dominate the region -- for a start.
Diplomacy, negotiations, or a new "deal," have no hope of limiting the regime's plans either for a nuclear weapons breakout or for "exporting the revolution" after Trump has safely left office.
As US Senator Lindsey Graham (R-SC) put it:
"There's a one in trillion chance you'll degrade the Iranian nuclear program through diplomacy. There's a 90% chance you'll degrade it through military action by Israel, supported by the United States."
Once Iran achieves nuclear weapons capability, it will be emboldened in ways that will make the world's current geopolitical challenges seem manageable. A nuclear-armed Iran would most likely escalate its aggression, continuing to pose an existential threat to US forces in the region; to the oil-rich Sunni Arab countries in the Gulf; to the "little Satan," Israel, and of course, to the "Great Satan" in the Western Hemisphere, the US.
As The Atlantic cautioned, "When Iran Says 'Death to Israel,' It Means It." Iran also means it when it places military assets in Venezuela and the Caribbean.
An empowered, nuclear-armed Iran would no doubt increase its support for its terrorist proxies, Hamas, Hezbollah and the Houthis, as well as most likely triggering the mother of all nuclear arms-races.
Iran's nuclear ambitions go hand in hand with its broader aspirations: to spread its ideological vision of an ummah (global Islamic nation) under its control, as enshrined in the country's constitution.
While Iran's nuclear program poses a significant external threat, the mullahs have long employed brutal tactics to suppress their own people. They have a 46-year record of engaging in mass executions, torture and imprisoning dissidents.
Iran's leadership, knowing that it faces little risk of external intervention, would likely become even more zealous to impose its will on its citizens. As Graham has remarked, "It would be like negotiating with Hitler."
Ending Iran's nuclear program, bluntly, is a matter of global security. The United States must stand not just with Israel and the Gulf States, but with itself. "If we don't do that," Graham said, "it will be a historical mistake."
Dr. Majid Rafizadeh is a political scientist, Harvard-educated analyst, and board member of Harvard International Review. He has authored several books on the US Foreign Policy. He can be reached at dr.rafizadeh@post.harvard.edu
Eric Hodgdon