Although the African National Congress (ANC) remains the dominant political party in South Africa after the 2024 national elections, its power is significantly diminished in addition to its reduced parliamentary representation. After failing to command a majority, the ANC is the largest faction of South Africa's so-called Government of National Unity – although there is little unity among its large number of members. To describe the government as a fragile coalition would be more accurate.
South African President Cyril Ramaphosa, an ardent critic of Israel, is the authority behind South Africa's actions condemning Israel's actions in Gaza at the International Court of Justice in The Hague. Ramaphosa is also a leading figure in BRICS – a group of nations seeking to bypass America's dominance of world trade, and global financial and monetary control. As part of South Africa's realignment from the West towards BRICS, the ANC has adopted Russia and Iran as replacement benefactors, and has strengthened ties with China.
A November 2024 report by the Institute for the Study of Global Anti-Semitism and Policy warns South Africans of the "ANC government's dangerous alliances with Iran, Qatar and Hamas." A press release announcing the report states:
"The report raises concerns about the timing and financing of South Africa's case against Israel at the ICJ. It highlights how, in early 2024, shortly after the South African government announced its case against Israel, the ANC mysteriously managed to stabilize its finances with an influx of money, despite being on the verge of bankruptcy... this occurred after high-level meetings between Hamas, Iranian, and Qatari leaders with ANC ministers, both of which have vested interests in challenging Israel on the global stage...
"South African government plays a critical role in facilitating Iran's entry into the BRICS group of nations, thereby granting the country enhanced political legitimacy and access to an influential economic bloc."
South Africa not only geographically abuts the Islamist-threatened country of Mozambique, but has an active and influential Muslim sector supportive of Hamas and Palestinian land claims. Coupled to its pathetic intelligence services, and its lamentable military and police forces, South Africa is ill-equipped to counter Islamist infiltration from neighboring regions or its growing internal extremist movements.
Despite its onerous race-based laws, and although a politically and socially unstable country, South Africa is the wealthiest country in Africa and therefore its most desirable nation for investment. It remains a highly attractive target for Russian, Chinese, Iranian and Islamist influence, whether financial, military, commercial, political or ideological. It has porous borders with six other African countries, all of which also remain susceptible to both state and non-state actors staking their interests in southern Africa.
ANC-led South Africa is on the verge of becoming a failed state. This contention is evident from a litany of factors which makes it vulnerable to social and political chaos. The escalating breakdown in essential services can be seen from a few recent press headlines:
- "Rupert [South Africa's richest person] sends a warning to South Africa – especially farmers and automakers" (Nov 29, 2024)
- "Critical workers are quitting in South Africa" (Nov 28, 2024)
- "VW joins the chorus of warnings for South Africa" (Nov 28, 2024)
- "South Africa's water quality crisis" (Nov 28, 2024)
- "Government flushes another R14 billion down the drain" (Nov 27, 2024)
- "South Africa heading for a cliff, warns Ramokgopa" (Nov 28, 2024)
- "84 people murdered every day in South Africa" (Feb 16, 2024)
- "Inside the spooky South African shopping mall where most shops are empty" (Dec 2, 2024)
- "South Africa is in the world's 'top five most dangerous countries'" (Nov 20, 2023)
- "South African municipalities in crisis – one in three councillors don't have a matric [high school diploma]" (Sep 12, 2024)
- "South Africa's rivers of sewage: More than half of SA's treatment works are failing" (Apr 26, 2021)
- "Two Durban beaches closed due to high E. coli levels ahead of festive season" (Dec 4, 2024)
- "South Africa making enemies with the wrong countries" (Dec 6, 2024)
These headlines indicate crises common to a failed state, but the situation is actually worse. The ANC, with allies from the Communist Party and the powerful labor unions, are determined to enforce their tightening neo-Marxist strategy on the populace.
This latest attempt consists of nationalizing private health care by forming a so-called National Health Insurance. The public health care system has all but collapsed, while the private health care system is top-class. The ANC's approach amounts to this: 'Well, we cannot fix the public health service, so we will appropriate the private sector's health system which works well. We will offer the poor the same level of health care as hitherto available only to a privileged few able to afford it.'
The outcome is predicable: the private system will refuse to become incorporated into this nefarious scheme but, if forced to do so, will simply close down and create an alternate structure. Highly-trained medical practitioners will probably leave the country or retire. Private hospitals will become insolvent, as is the case in public service facilities.
The ANC's proposed Basic Education Laws Amendment Act (BELA) is a highly controversial attempt by the ANC to authorize the regime's severe intrusion into private school education. Like everything else there, the public school system is disastrous. The ANC wishes to control the private school sector, in the mode of Soviet-style, authoritarian regimes. The official opposition, the Democratic Alliance party comments that BELA is a "power grab by the government, effectively centralising control over schools and reducing the autonomy of local communities and parents."
Apart from succeeding in overcoming Apartheid, all that the ANC and allies have put their minds to since, ends in dismal failure. Every state-owned enterprise is broke and/or dysfunctional, including the national airline South African Airways, the South African Broadcasting Corporation, the arms manufacturer Denel and the South African Post Office. The same applies to government departments such as Transnet (which manages ports, rail freight transport and pipelines), the South African National Defence Force, the South African Police Service, PetroSA (oil and gas), the Passenger Rail Agency of South Africa, and so endlessly on.
As a mineral-rich country with a strategic geographical location and easy access to hinterland African states, South Africa is a prime target for a hostile takeover by opportunistic authoritarian state players. Russia is strongly positioned already; it has a long history of supporting African national liberation movements, especially the ANC, and has frequent interpersonal visits with ANC politicians. South Africa conducts joint military exercises with both Russia and China, and is accused of supplying Russia with munitions for its crusade against Ukraine. Iran and its proxy Hamas are both a cause célèbre among ANC politicians, with Hamas having permanent representatives in Cape Town.
President Ramaphosa has remained silent about an attempted terrorist bombing of the Cape Town Jewish community center on December 5 -- despite the condemnation by many world leaders of the incident. The South African Jewish Board of Deputies wrote:
"This was an act of antisemitism aimed at the Jewish community, whether intended to intimidate or to cause physical harm. It was an illegal act that constitutes a hate crime."
Should Ramaphosa eventually decide to condemn the action, his May statement to the effect that "Palestine will be free from the River to the Sea," would surely mitigate the credibility of his belated comments.
The West is "asleep at the wheel" when it comes to Africa generally, and South Africa in particular. South Africa enjoys the benefits of trade concessions from the United States under its African Growth and Opportunity Act, but politically, ideologically, economically and militarily, South Africa stays close to China, Russia and Iran.
Of the three, China, with its vast financial and political investments in Africa, carries the most influence, and this will no doubt increase beyond the West's capacity to match it as time passes. At this moment, with its primary focus on the Middle East and Ukraine, the West is unable or unwilling to match China's multi-faceted influence in the region and thus offers China unbounded freedom to accelerate pursuit of its interests there.
The future for liberal democracy in Africa therefore does not appear favorable, and the West's loss of influence in the region might be greatly regretted for decades to come.
Nils A. Haug is an author and columnist. A Lawyer by profession, he is member of the International Bar Association, the National Association of Scholars, a faculty member at Intercollegiate Studies Institute, the Academy of Philosophy and Letters. Retired from law, his particular field of interest is political theory and ethics interconnected with current events. He holds a Ph.D. in Apologetical Theology. Dr. Haug is author of 'Politics, Law, and Disorder in the Garden of Eden – the Quest for Identity'; and 'Enemies of the Innocent – Life, Truth, and Meaning in a Dark Age.' His work has been published by First Things Journal, The American Mind, Quadrant, Minding the Campus, Gatestone Institute, National Association of Scholars, Israel Hayom, The James Wilson Institute (Anchoring Truths), Document Danmark, Jewish Journal, and others.
