Never underestimate the power of an administration's single term or the harm that policies – whether constructive or poorly-informed -- can have on the international stage.
As President Joe Biden's administration approaches the end of its term, it is hard not to see the global volatility, emboldened adversaries, and fractured alliances.
Those are lessons to be learned about the costs of weakness in leadership and the consequences of strategic missteps in foreign policy.
Throughout the past four years, authoritarian leaders worldwide exploited opportunities afforded them by what they appear to have viewed as a weakness of American leadership. Dictators who had previously been isolated or reined in evidently saw an opening and capitalized on this strategic vacuum. Russia invaded Ukraine. China flew spy balloons over America's most sensitive nuclear military installations, in addition to killing at least 100,000 Americans each year with fentanyl and other opiates.
Iran, once on the brink of economic collapse and mired in domestic unrest, found itself reinvigorated as U.S. policies allowed billions to flow into its economy. This infusion of resources and a perceived lack of decisive U.S. opposition empowered Iran's leadership to assert itself more aggressively on the world stage. No doubt emboldened by this renewed strength, Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and terrorist proxies - Hamas, Hezbollah, Palestinian Islamic Jihad and the Houthis, among others -- launched brazen attacks on Israel and effectively shut down shipping through the Suez Canal. For the first time, Iran launched from its own soil hundreds of ballistic missiles, cruise missiles and attack drones at Israel, a country smaller than the state of New Jersey -- a demonstration of the regime's fundamentalist commitment to destroying the Jewish state.
More importantly, witnessing a weakened U.S. stance, the Iranian regime accelerated its nuclear weapons ambitions, advancing its program reportedly to within "1-2 weeks" of a full nuclear breakout. Iranian leaders now openly claim that they have achieved the technological threshold required to build nuclear weapons. Tehran has been racing closer to this long-standing goal. Iran acquiring nuclear weapons is an accomplishment that will not only destabilize the Middle East, but undoubtedly spur "the mother of all arms-races."
President-elect Donald J. Trump at present seems averse to regime change in Iran. Unfortunately -- due to the regime's commitment to "wipe Israel off the map" and, as stated in its constitution, to export its version of Islam across the world -- there does not appear to be the possibility for a real long-term peace in the Middle East without regime change. Anything short of that simply invites the regime to wait Trump out, as well as whoever succeeds him.
Russia, not content with merely violating Ukraine's sovereignty, has also cultivated an increasingly robust military partnership with China, North Korea and Iran. Iran has been transformed into a significant weapons supplier for Moscow, and has provided crucial drones and missiles, and other arms essential for Russia's continued military aggression in Ukraine.
Recently, North Korea reportedly sent Russia 10,000 soldiers. "Why is Putin doing this?" U.S. Senator Rick Scott observed. "Because he knows Biden is weak."
U.S. Senator Lindsey Graham asserted that Biden "has screwed the world up every way you can." "[T]he world's on fire," Graham stated on NBC's "Meet the Press."
China and North Korea have joined Iran in supporting Russia's objectives, thereby introducing a new group that challenges Western influence. The Biden administration's inaction has not just permitted, but catalyzed, the formation of this formidable coalition among the world's most repressive regimes -- a new "Axis of Evil": China, Russia, Iran and North Korea.
The Biden administration's lack of decisive responses seems to have created a void of leadership on the global stage -- a void that was quickly filled by this axis of authoritarian dictators. The Tehran Times, a newspaper close to Iran's foreign ministry, openly boasted, "today we are witnessing the formation of a new world order," and acknowledged how the vacuum had allowed them to further their agendas.
Iran has also openly defied sanctions by selling weapons to Russia and engaging in oil trade with both Russia and China. Iran's oil exports have apparently reached a peak.
Not enough can be said to warn nations of the dangers that can arise from a lack of robust leadership, the perils of underestimating the ambitions of adversarial states, and the paralysis of being unable to confront an adversary for fear of escalation. The adversary, not the leader of Free World, is supposed to fear "escalation."
Biden's single term in office has contributed to an unprecedented destabilization of global security in Eastern Europe, the Middle East and in the Indo-Pacific. It is a turmoil marked by Iran's unchecked nuclear advancements, empowered authoritarian regimes, and an emboldened axis of nations ready to challenge U.S. interests across the globe.
"I never worry about action," Winston Churchill once stated, "but only about inaction."
The repercussions of allowing Iran, its proxies, and its allies -- Russia, China, North Korea and other malign actors -- to operate without meaningful deterrence, simply underscores the need for a "Golden Age" -- especially a new regime in Iran more aligned with the dreams of so many of its citizens -- and not a moment too soon.
Dr. Majid Rafizadeh is a Harvard-educated scholar and political scientist. He has authored several books on the US Foreign Policy and Islam. He can be reached at Dr.Rafizadeh@Post.Harvard.Edu
Martin Nash