Russia's Putin to NATO: Commit Suicide or Face All-Out War

by Soeren Kern
January 6, 2022 at 5:00 am

https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/18096/russia-putin-nato

Translations of this item:

Czech

The Russian demands, which effectively require NATO to commit suicide, are so obviously outrageous and unmeetable that Western analysts are split over interpreting Russian President Vladimir Putin's motives. Some say he is using the impossible list of demands as a pretext to invade Ukraine. Others think he is playing a weak hand to try to divide the West and reorder Europe's security architecture in Russia's favor.
Germany appears to be the West's weak link the face of Russian pressure. On January 3, the German newspaper Bild reported that Scholz is seeking "a new beginning" in relations with Moscow. This has alarmed smaller European countries which fear that Germany will reach an accommodation with Putin behind their backs.
"The Russian leader... believes he has a window of opportunity to act. He is worried that the risk of Kiev joining NATO will increase if a stronger U.S. leader... comes to power.... Regretfully, the Biden administration's 'experts,' like Obama's before them who fecklessly sought a 'reset' with Russia, are likely to fall into Putin's trap." — Rebekah Koffler, a Russian-born U.S. intelligence expert.
"A second Russian attack on Ukraine, should it happen, ought to serve as a long-overdue wake-up call for the West about Russia's intentions to establish an exclusive sphere of influence in Eastern Europe and assert Moscow's claims to exercising influence in Central Europe, within NATO's perimeter.... Europe's security would deteriorate dramatically. The zone of competition would shift from Eastern Europe to Central Europe and the Baltic states." — Andrew Michta, geopolitical analyst
"The West should immediately impose tough sanctions on Russia, provide serious defense assistance to Ukraine, demonstrate unambivalent support for Ukrainian sovereignty, and project moral and strategic resolve. Unfortunately, current trends and past behavior provide little cause for optimism that the 'free world' will rise to the challenge." — Anne Pierce, foreign policy expert
"Westerners do not seem to understand what is at stake. They think that only the fate of Ukraine is being decided, which is of less concern to them than that of Armenia.... They resemble those who in 1939 believed that Hitler's demands would be limited to Danzig. However, one only has to look at the texts proposed by Moscow to understand that the stakes are quite different." — Françoise Thom, French historian of Russia.
"In 1946-7 we knew that freedom was worth dying for, something that is obviously forgotten today. After Munich in 1938, the West was ashamed to have abandoned Czechoslovakia into Hitler's clutches. Today we are cowardly letting down Ukraine, but we do not even realize our dishonor, nor the danger of giving in to an aggressor. We are like the Byzantines who were discussing the sex of angels while the Ottoman forces were destroying the city walls." — Françoise Thom.

Russia has threatened war if the United States and its NATO allies fail to comply — unconditionally — with sweeping demands for a new security arrangement in Europe. Western analysts are split over interpreting Russian President Vladimir Putin's motives. Some say he is using the impossible list of demands as a pretext to invade Ukraine. Others think he is playing a weak hand to try to divide the West and reorder Europe's security architecture in Russia's favor. (Photo by Mikhail Metzel/Sputnik/AFP via Getty Images)

Russia has threatened war if the United States and its NATO allies fail to comply — unconditionally — with sweeping demands for a new security arrangement in Europe.

The demands, issued by the Russian Foreign Ministry, require the United States to remove its nuclear umbrella from Europe and allow Russia to reestablish its Soviet-era sphere of influence over Eastern Europe.

The Russian demands, which effectively require NATO to commit suicide, are so obviously outrageous and unmeetable that Western analysts are split over interpreting Russian President Vladimir Putin's motives. Some say he is using the impossible list of demands as a pretext to invade Ukraine. Others think he is playing a weak hand to try to divide the West and reorder Europe's security architecture in Russia's favor.

Nearly all Western analysts agree: Putin is taking advantage of the weakness of U.S. President Joe Biden, divisions between the United States and Europe, disagreements within the European Union, and the fecklessness of the leaders of Europe's largest countries, particularly France and Germany.

On December 17, the Russian Foreign Ministry published two draft treaties: one between Russia and the United States, and the other between Russia and NATO.

Russia's draft "Treaty between the United States of America and the Russian Federation on Security Guarantees" listed more than a dozen demands, including:

NATO membership must be denied to all states of the former Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (USSR), including the Baltic states of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, which have been members of the alliance since 2004.
NATO is prohibited from expanding further eastward, including to countries such as Sweden and Finland.
The United States is prohibited from flying bombers or deploying warships, including within the framework of NATO, in areas outside of its national airspace and national territorial waters, respectively.
The United States is prohibited from deploying its armed forces or armaments, including within the framework of NATO, in any area where such deployment could be perceived by Russia as a threat to its national security.
The United States must remove all its nuclear weapons from Europe.
The United States is prohibited from deploying ground-launched intermediate-range and shorter-range missiles outside of its territory.

Russia's draft "Agreement on Measures to Ensure the Security of the Russian Federation and Member States of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization" put forward additional demands:

NATO member states are prohibited from deploying military forces to any country that became a member of the alliance after May 27, 1997, when NATO and Russia signed the Founding Act on Mutual Relations. This includes 14 countries that have become NATO members during the past 25 years: Albania, Bulgaria, Croatia, Czechia, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Montenegro, North Macedonia, Poland, Romania, Slovakia and Slovenia.
NATO is prohibited from deploying land-based intermediate- and short-range missiles to anywhere where such missiles can reach Russia.
NATO is prohibited from any further enlargement, including the accession of Ukraine as well as any other state.
NATO is prohibited from military cooperation with Ukraine as well as other states in Eastern Europe, the South Caucasus and in Central Asia.

Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov declared that both texts are part of a whole and are not to be understood as being "a menu, where you can choose one or the other."

While Russia expects NATO and the United States to comply with its demands, Moscow, in return, has offered only a vague commitment to "not create conditions or situations that threaten the national security of the other parties." The draft treaty imposes no requirements for Moscow to redeploy Russian forces.

On December 20, Konstantin Gavrilov, a Russian diplomat in Vienna, said that relations between Moscow and NATO had reached a "moment of truth." He added:

"The conversation needs to be serious and everyone in NATO understands perfectly well despite their strength and power that concrete political action needs to be taken, otherwise the alternative is a military-technical and military response from Russia."

On December 23, Putin, during a four-hour press conference, repeated his stance that "any further NATO movement to the east is unacceptable." A few days later, the Kremlin described NATO expansion as "a matter of life and death" for Russia.

On December 26, Russia warned Finland and Sweden against joining NATO. "It is quite obvious that the accession of Finland and Sweden to NATO would have serious military and political consequences that would require an adequate response from Russia," said Russian foreign ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova.

Russia hopes to obtain new security guarantees during a series of upcoming meetings with American and European officials. Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov and U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman are scheduled to lead bilateral security talks in Geneva on January 10.

Russia is set to hold talks with NATO in Brussels on January 12, before a broader meeting in Vienna on January 13 involving the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE), which includes the United States and its NATO allies, as well as Russia, Ukraine and other former Soviet states.

Meanwhile, Russia has amassed an estimated 100,000 troops on Ukraine's eastern border amid fears of an imminent invasion.

Evaluating Russian Demands

Françoise Thom, a renowned French historian of Russia, wrote that Putin is trying to "bind NATO through the United States, the United States through NATO." She added: "There is nothing to negotiate, you have to accept everything as a whole."

Thom, in a lengthy and incisive analysis of the Russian demands, described them as "an orchestrated blackmail":

"The Russian blackmail is explicit and is directed at both the Americans and the Europeans. If the West does not accept the Russian ultimatum, they will have to face 'a military and technical alternative,' according to Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Grushko: 'The Europeans must also think about whether they want to avoid making their continent the scene of a military confrontation. They have a choice. Either they take seriously what is put on the table, or they face a military-technical alternative.'

"After the publication of the draft treaty, the possibility of a pre-emptive strike against NATO targets (similar to those that Israel inflicted on Iran), was confirmed by former Deputy Minister of Defense Andrei Kartapolov (Duma Defense Committee): 'Our partners must understand that the longer they drag out the examination of our proposals and the adoption of real measures to create these guarantees, the greater the likelihood that they will suffer a pre-emptive strike.'

"To make things clear Russia fired a 'salvo' of Zircon hypersonic missiles on December 24. Dmitry Peskov, the Kremlin spokesman, commented on this event: 'Well, I hope that the notes [of December 17] will be more convincing.' Editorialist Vladimir Mozhegov added: 'What are our arguments? First and foremost, of course, our most reliable allies — the army and the navy. To be more precise, the hypersonic Zircon missile (the 'carrier killer,' as it is affectionately called in the West), which makes it absurd for the United States to have a fleet of aircraft carriers. The impact of the Zircon cracks a destroyer like a nut. Several Zircons will inevitably sink an aircraft carrier. The Zircon simply does its job: it methodically shoots huge, clumsy aircraft carriers like a gun at cans.'

"An article in the digital newspaper Svpressa eloquently titled 'Putin's ultimatum: Russia ... will bury all of Europe and two-thirds of the United States in 30 minutes' dots the i's: 'The Kremlin will have to prove its position with deeds. It is probably only possible to force the 'partners' to sit at the negotiating table by coercion. Economically, the Russian Federation cannot compete with the West. There remains war.' Military expert Konstantin Sivkov believes that 'to bring the United States and NATO to the negotiating table, some kind of super weapon is needed to... demonstrate our determination to strike if NATO expands. After that, I can assure you that they [the West] will be afraid.... It is naive to rely on diplomatic procedures. [...] Russia's move is a signal that already radical measures are going to be taken. You refused, so you will have yourselves to blame...'"

Official Responses

White House press secretary Jen Psaki said that the United States would consult with its allies.

Polish Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lukasz Jasina added: "Russia is not a member of NATO and doesn't decide on matters related to NATO."

Ukraine's foreign ministry said Kyiv had an "exclusive sovereign right" to run its own foreign policy, and only it and NATO could determine the relationship between them, including the question of Ukrainian membership.

Finland, an officially neutral country which shares a border with Russia, underscored its right to seek NATO membership at any time. "Let it be stated once again," said Finland's president, Sauli Niinistö. "Finland's room to maneuver and freedom of choice also include the possibility of military alignment and of applying for NATO membership, should we ourselves so decide."

Swedish Foreign Minister Ann Linde added:

"We must have a rules-based world order, where we have international law and each country has the right to make its own security policy choices. Rejecting any future expansion of NATO will reduce the opportunities to make independent political choices."

Germany appears to be the West's weak link the face of Russian pressure. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz wants to reset relations with Moscow and is planning a face-to-face meeting with Putin sometime this January.

On January 3, the German newspaper Bild reported that Scholz is seeking "a new beginning" in relations with Moscow. This has alarmed smaller European countries which fear that Germany will reach an accommodation with Putin behind their backs. In an interview with Bild, former Estonian President Toomas Hendrik Ilves said:

"Everyone saw [German Foreign Minister] Annalena Baerbock and hoped that she could shift the German foreign policy focus to human rights and the observance of basic values. Europe basically hoped that the new government would mean an end to mercantilism, but then Mr. Scholz took over the helm. What we see now is unfortunately more of what we already know and not a good start to his term in office and not a good sign for European unity."

Select Commentary

Former NATO Secretary-General Anders Fogh Rasmussen, in an opinion article published by Politico, warned that Putin is seeking Russian control over the security of Central and Eastern Europe:

"Under the new Russian proposals, NATO would have to seek consent from Moscow to deploy troops in Central and Eastern Europe, refrain from 'any military activity' across Eastern Europe, the southern Caucuses and Central Asia, and halt any NATO drills near Russia. The agreement also demands a written guarantee that Ukraine will not be offered NATO membership, and a draft treaty with the United States would ban it from sending warships and aircrafts to 'areas where they can strike targets on the territory of the other party,' like the Baltics and the Black Sea.

"This is not a serious proposal from a man who wants peace.

"Putin is skilled at creating crises only to later extinguish them, like a firefighter trying to douse his own arson attack, and by threatening to invade Ukraine, he has calculated that the U.S. and other Western powers might negotiate directly with the Kremlin — potentially over their Eastern European and Baltic allies — offering concessions and allowing him to maintain influence over former Soviet countries in exchange for peace.

"Putin plays a bad hand well — but his tactics will only work if we fold. And it's time for NATO to call Putin's bluff.

"Under no circumstances should the U.S. or NATO give commitments on future enlargement, real or de facto.... NATO cannot have an open-door policy on enlargement in which it continues to allow Putin to act as the doorman.

"NATO cannot negotiate down the barrel of a gun. And if we back down now, that signal will be heard loud and clear by both the democracies that rely on us, and the autocrats who lament and fear our freedom."

Rebekah Koffler, a Russian-born U.S. intelligence expert, argued that the evidence is overwhelming that Russia is about to invade Ukraine, and that Putin was taking advantage of the weakness of the United States under President Joe Biden:

"The Russian leader... believes he has a window of opportunity to act. He is worried that the risk of Kiev joining NATO will increase if a stronger U.S. leader...comes to power. He also knows that the Pentagon is only beginning its transition from counter-terrorism operations onto a new footing focused on major states such as China and Russia.

"Russian troops are primed to fight in the cold, as they always have been, and Putin likely believes the West won't wade into the snow to help Ukraine. Emboldened by his ability to blindside the West, such as by previously invading Georgia and taking Crimea, and by extorting concessions from Joe Biden, Putin is positioning to outmaneuver Washington.

"Regretfully, the Biden administration's 'experts,' like Obama's before them who fecklessly sought a 'reset' with Russia, are likely to fall into Putin's trap."

Steven Pifer, a foreign policy expert at the Brookings Institution, wrote that the substance of the Russian demands, and the way they were publicized, suggest that Putin is not serious about negotiating with the West:

"The unacceptable provisions in the two draft agreements, their quick publication by the Russian government, and the peremptory terms used by Russian officials to describe Moscow's demands raise concern that the Kremlin may want rejection. With large forces near Ukraine, Moscow could then cite that as another pretext for military action against its neighbor."

Veteran geopolitical analyst Andrew Michta, writing for the inestimable blog 19fourtyfive, argued that Putin is trying to divide NATO, humiliate the West and eject the United States from Europe:

"Judging by the scope of the demands presented by Russia in the two so-called 'draft treaties' with NATO and the United States, respectively, Moscow must have no illusions that these would be accepted, for they would remake Euro-Atlantic security, creating conditions that would undermine NATO and America's ability to work with its allies. Putin may have already decided to move militarily, and calls for the West to negotiate could create a 'maskirovka' [Russian military deception] and in doing so provide a casus belli for Moscow, which would try to claim that Washington had refused to consider its terms.

"If the demands to negotiate have a larger aim it is to divide the alliance. Most importantly, the idea that Russia would need a written treaty guarantee to forestall Ukraine or Georgia's accession to NATO is absurd. Putin knows that so long as he occupies Donetsk and Luhansk in Ukraine and Abkhazia and South Ossetia in Georgia, the countries have no chance of making it into NATO, for a vote to enlarge the alliance would mean in effect a vote to go to war with Russia. Moscow's demand that the effective status quo be confirmed by treaty is thus nothing short of an attempt to humiliate the West.

"It is critical to consider what might happen should Russia invade Ukraine, and what might happen if we do not start thinking long-term about the impact of this crisis. A second Russian attack on Ukraine, should it happen, ought to serve as a long-overdue wake-up call for the West about Russia's intentions to establish an exclusive sphere of influence in Eastern Europe and assert Moscow's claims to exercising influence in Central Europe, within NATO's perimeter....

"Should the response to Russia's invasion of Ukraine be more of the same, Europe's security would deteriorate dramatically. The zone of competition would shift from Eastern Europe to Central Europe and the Baltic states, where the next round of Putin's demands could be a de facto 'Finlandization' of the Baltic States and pressure on the United States and NATO to remove military assets from the intermarium [Central and Eastern European countries] between the Baltic and the Black Seas, especially from Poland and Romania. In this scenario Putin would target Germany as his 'partner of preference,' with the expectation that by applying its energy weapon Moscow could eventually coax Berlin into a 'neo-Bismarckian' [German dominance of the European Union] accommodation that would in effect divide Europe into two spheres of influence, rendering the United States increasingly irrelevant to the overall strategic balance in Europe."

American foreign policy expert Anne Pierce warned that the United States and Europe are at a "tipping point":

"If they do not move decisively to stop Russia from taking over Ukraine, they will send a dangerous message to China vis-a-vis Taiwan, position Russia to coerce more former Soviet satellite states, and further ruin their international reputation, which is already in tatters after the betrayal of Afghanistan and failed diplomatic overtures to Iran. The window is closing to deter Russia from instigating major war or from conquering Ukraine by intensifying its current campaign of paramilitary assaults, disinformation, energy blackmail, and threats backed by escalation.

"It is nearly past time to alter Vladimir Putin's shrewd calculus and deny Russia crucial geopolitical territory and a defining anti-democratic victory. The West should immediately impose tough sanctions on Russia, provide serious defense assistance to Ukraine, demonstrate unambivalent support for Ukrainian sovereignty, and project moral and strategic resolve. Unfortunately, current trends and past behavior provide little cause for optimism that the 'free world' will rise to the challenge....

"In the face of Russia's alarming advances and brazen disregard for international norms, Western leaders have hesitated to impose serious costs. They've issued 'expressions of concern,' agreed to treaties that give Russia an advantage, failed to enforce those treaties, haltingly imposed weak sanctions, and generally exhibited inertia that contrasts with Putin's drive....

"Recent Western responses to Russian aggression resemble the Munich peace process. In hopes of satisfying Adolf Hitler from wanting more, the West buried its head in the sand about Hitler's vast ambitions and escalating atrocities and forced Czechoslovakia into concessions that facilitated German occupation. History, and the failure of generous compromise to stop Putin so far, tells us where all this is likely to lead."

Françoise Thom, the French historian, urged the West to wake up:

"Reading the Western press, one is under the impression that nothing is happening. Westerners do not seem to understand what is at stake. They think that only the fate of Ukraine is being decided, which is of less concern to them than that of Armenia.... They resemble those who in 1939 believed that Hitler's demands would be limited to Danzig. However, one only has to look at the texts proposed by Moscow to understand that the stakes are quite different....

"In a word, Russia is demanding that NATO commit suicide, and that the United States be reduced to the role of a regional power.... As a result, Russia will have the upper hand in Europe. The countries of Western Europe are already taken for granted, with Moscow counting on the pool of collaborators that it has cultivated for years within the European ruling elites: it has just sent them a strong signal by appointing François Fillon [former prime minister of France] as director of the petrochemical giant Sibur. Deprived of American support, the 'Russophobic' countries that crystallize the resistance to Moscow's hegemony will only have to bow to the inevitable....

"Westerners must first perceive the situation as it is, however unpleasant it may be for our democratic states more accustomed to futile undertakings than to ensuring their preservation. To do this, we must extricate ourselves from the Russian lie....

"When Moscow talks about 'security' one must understand 'Russian domination' and 'impunity,' because that is what it is all about. In the Kremlin's view, everything it does not control can jeopardize the regime.... What Moscow fears in Ukraine is not a few NATO instructors, but freedom. It wants a disarmed Ukraine so that it can intimidate the Kiev rebels and set up a regime hated by its people, thus totally dependent on the Kremlin....

"If Russia succeeds in driving the United States out of Europe, it will soon feel threatened by the freedoms of Western European countries, and under the pretext of ensuring its 'security,' it will display the same determination in our country [France] as in its own to enslave the media, to eradicate democratic institutions and independent parties....

"In 1946-7 we knew that freedom was worth dying for, something that is obviously forgotten today. After Munich in 1938, the West was ashamed to have abandoned Czechoslovakia into Hitler's clutches. Today we are cowardly letting down Ukraine, but we do not even realize our dishonor, nor the danger of giving in to an aggressor. We are like the Byzantines who were discussing the sex of angels while the Ottoman forces were destroying the city walls."

Soeren Kern is a Senior Fellow at the New York-based Gatestone Institute.

© 2024 Gatestone Institute. All rights reserved. The articles printed here do not necessarily reflect the views of the Editors or of Gatestone Institute. No part of the Gatestone website or any of its contents may be reproduced, copied or modified, without the prior written consent of Gatestone Institute.

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Comment on this item

37 Reader Comments

1Cedar • Feb 5, 2022 at 06:44

The threat of a pre-emptive strike by Russia is not analogous to Israel's pre-emotive strike on Iranian nuclear facilities, Context matters.

Israel was setting back the development of nuclear missiles explicitly designed to reach and annihilate their country, and half of the world's remaining Jewish people. Russian strikes on the West and allied countries are aggressive, aimed at re-constructing the hegemony Soviet Russia formerly exercised over many Northern & Eastern European nations.

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Bull Herman • Jan 20, 2022 at 00:53

There is a dynamic race being run by every autocratic bully. Get it done before 2024! The world knows Biden is one term.
As for the Olympics? Enjoy while they exist. The next winter and summer games will be more good guy vs bad guy than country vs country.
Russia and Red China for now have more in common as each wishes to wreck and consume a chunk of US allies or unofficial territory.
It is only the vacuum of US leadership that makes this possible.
Jan Psaki's empty defense that Russia isn't a member of NATO and doesn't make its decisions? Yeah? So what happens then, does NATO phone and ask Putin what he suggests?
The world is lost morally and otherwise is too scared to confront even its mirror image. A worldwide deer in the headlights mindset.
Want to shake the chaff from the grain? Suggest that all those EU immigrants immediately conscript into the EU army. In typical EU fashion no religion affiliation allowed. See how many suddenly decide to go home.
Suggest in US that nukes from Red China or Russia will be incoming. Kiss CRT goodbye. Watch how many illegals repatriate themselves.
Prepare a list for the draft.
Rip Red China's economy out by stopping trade.
Scatter our land based nukes around.
Of course this would take leadership which now doesn't exist.
So far Russia and Red China feel there's nothing to fear or lose. North Korea got nukes and Iran soon will. It's since been a boring suspense.
These countries must realize scorched earth on our side means such death and destruction on theirs that nobody will survive to initiate a second round. Including patsies Iran, Cuba, Venezuela, and North Korea. Let them know there's more than enough mushroom clouds to go around.
Life is precious. And so is quality of life, freedom to worship, and freedom to be happy.
Take these away; is the alternative worth living?
The words of Patrick Henry are again relevant.

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Desert Dweller • Jan 7, 2022 at 12:56

I agree that NATO needs to be flushed down the toilet, the bastards are and always have been USELESS! imho

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cammo99 • Jan 7, 2022 at 09:37

Dear Mr. Putin,
In the USA we do not call an initiative by the current presidency suicide, we call it Bidencide.
Sincerely
Cammo

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Rob Porter • Jan 6, 2022 at 23:51

On one hand, I am forcefully struck by what appears the mindless absurdity of Vladimir Putin's demands and threats, but I know full well that this would not be happening if the Western world had a leader with substance, integrity, competence and recognizable courage. If does not. Instead it has a shallow, un-amusing stumblebum and buffoon in Washington who lies with alacrity, and this empty shell competes with the likes of Olaf Scholz and Emmanuel Macron. They are truly pitiful, afflicted by weak character.

Putin knows it, sees it in their pitifully weak dealings with the rogue regime in Iran, and knows they are likely to roll over and capitulate.

Francoise Thom captures the mood best:

"In 1946-7 we knew that freedom was worth dying for, something that is obviously forgotten today. After Munich in 1938, the West was ashamed to have abandoned Czechoslovakia into Hitler's clutches. Today we are cowardly letting down Ukraine, but we do not even realize our dishonor, nor the danger of giving in to an aggressor. We are like the Byzantines who were discussing the sex of angels while the Ottoman forces were destroying the city walls."

Western societies aren't discussing the sex of angels, they've passed believing on God and angels, and now live in a spiritual vacuum. Instead, in acts of moral, intellectual and character collapse, they are abandoning and sacrificing truth and facts for contemptible political correctness, its accompanying lies and false pretences - and the lies of Critical Race Theory, woke absurdity and in Washington January 6, fashioning it an insurrection. If they possessed moral convictions they'd be ashamed of their empty condition and lies, but lacking these and any sense of honour they will instead search for someone or something to blame while they crumble rather than fight.

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belter

Rob Porter • Jan 10, 2022 at 03:36

Excellent assessment and damning verdict.

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Geoffrey Rogg

Rob Porter • Jan 10, 2022 at 06:54

I disagree. We have always lived with unwarranted fear of and hostility to Russia and yet the European and Biden cowards are all too ready to suck up to a much greater threat to peace and stability, that of Islamist extremism, be it from the Teheran Mullahs or other promoters of that repugnant creed. Russia is God fearing country with one of the richest cultures in the world whose nation we should embrace rather than pillory.

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Oren • Jan 6, 2022 at 21:01

It seems to me that there are 4 main aspects for the reader to consider.
First there is the issue of the eastern portions of the Ukraine. Do they now have more of A Russian identity, than A Ukrainian one? Do they want to be part of Russia, in majority numbers? Would they breaking away from Russia represent A threat to the national security of the Ukraine? I am thinking in comparison to Israel. The Ukraine is 750 miles wide, from a security perspective can they afford to lose 200 miles? Because Israel is 43 miles wide, and they cant afford to reduce their nation to one that is 9 miles wide.
If we hold freedom of choice as the worldwide standard, then that is A choice, and A coherent standard to fight behind, but we know that the American south was forbidden from secession, despite having considerable legal basis for doing so. We know that Catalonias attempt at secession was put down. The same goes for multiple European countries who desired to remove themselves from the EU, and who do not agree to pay back the loans corrupt government 'representatives' took out and stole. The same can be said of the Chechens, the Georgians, the Tibetians, the Mongols, the Uyghur of Xinjiang, the people of Hong Kong and Taiwan. It is safe to say the only place in the world where it is permissible is for the Muslims of Israel.
Second is the issue of the signed agreements from the 1990's promising that NATO and or America would not expand. I don't see an easy way for such an offense to be rectified. Reparations? Such as what, no country will surrender land unless they already have to due to broken agreements, and countries who have been betrayed cant be financially compensated for that loss of security, influence, and economic clout. The majority effect is A loss of A stabilizing tool. A moral standard with benefits, that has been lost. If both sides wish to restore such commitments they are welcome to do so. It will take time and in the short term, the likely starting negotiating point will be where the balance of power border would be in an average war. The failure of respecting signed agreements also diminishes the notion of offering freedom of choice to citizens, which as I previously pointed out had already been disregarded by both sides.
Third is measuring the world from the perspective of net power, versus respecting the sovereign rights of all nations. This is simplistic, it leaves little room in A range, and wars are decided quickly, especially if one side is having difficulty accepting reality.
Sometimes wars are preferable for other reasons, which can influence the balance of power. A dictator may want A distraction, in the form of A new enemy for his people, but you always have the option of manning up and accepting the fight.
Interestingly with my current thinking that some peoples in the world, due to low IQ scores, or low access to Judaism, are inclined to tyrannies who are inclined to desire perpetual wars. This might be an unavoidable strength of the forces of evil. They have many weaknesses.
Finally, there is the issue often alluded to, that compromising with evil, signing agreements with evil, is an invitation to further aggression, that all agreements are meaningless with such an aggressive entity, which inclines the conclusion that our best course of action is to hold steadfast, and express our acceptance of death and war. As long as the door of communication is somewhat open between the free world and the world of the tyrannical dictatorships, the advantage for who undermines who more seems to go to the free nations more.
This notion of perpetual vigilance against evil implies A stupid relationship with foreign nations. It almost means diplomacy is meaningless, which it may be. If assertion of what is right over what is wrong is the deciding factor, then we westerners would need greater clarity as to the badness of the Russian regime. Not to say that there aren't already examples of press being arrested, but we need differentiation with our allies and other business partners who either arrest journalists, or have little to no free speech at all. Multiple youtube videos by Rebel news in Canada comes to mind. So does Erdogan, the BBC, CNN, Peter Schiff, the Israeli media, the entire EU and the entire muslim world, come to mind.
Obviously, some combinations of these 4 factors is possible, even probable. I think moral superiority has diminished for the west, which is compelling A new balance of power. There are champions of truth remaining in America, but they appear to be A minority power in America. If democracy makes them combat ineffective, then their existence has reduced meaning. Perhaps there is free speech released by the need to censor them.
People might vote for A candidate because they think the alternative is worse, but that does not mean they support the government's legitimacy.

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Modesto Iglesia • Jan 6, 2022 at 18:10

All this childish rethorical confrontation between East and West would be over by simply inviting Russia and its allies to join NATO as members with all rights, privileges and benefits. Or - as an alternative - blending ALL eastern and western forces into ONE solid new organization, with the secundary purpose of containing Chinese worldwide expansion: the real danger to them all.
Utopic idea? Yes, but a beautiful dream, isn't it?
but a beautiful alternative to all this

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George D. McAdoo

Modesto Iglesia • Jan 6, 2022 at 19:20

Right. Invite a Communist military into free nations. What better way to nurture Khrushchev's vow to destroy America from within. Who needs Joe Biden. One thing I've learned: A Communist can not be trusted!

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Martin • Jan 6, 2022 at 17:09

Demanding that NATO commit suicide is quite unnecessary.
NATO has been dead for several decades. Asking that NATO nations to pay their annual association dues is apparently asking more than they are prepared to contribute.
The Ukraine's independence will end "not with a bang, but with a whimper," (Apologies to T.S. Eliot)

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Conrad Kalish • Jan 6, 2022 at 16:51

All this is notwithstanding the fact that Ukrainian Russophones have no reason to like or accommodate Putin. And they are not all in the east. By Stalin's design, as much of 80% of Kyiv was packed with transferred Russians. Surely, if the Maidan rebellion were against their grain, they would not have permitted it in the first place, and Yanukovich would have led a Yeltsinesque charge to restore his "democracy", instead of skulking out of the country. Likewise, Lukashenko holds naked power through an outright fraudulent election, with no agenda other than "union" with Russia. Surely, no Belarussian, however pro-Russian or uninformed, would surrender his polity to a foreign leader, so willingly. We talk of supporting Ukraibe, undoubtedly all Ukrainians and Belarussians will make Putin's life a nightmare if he invades, and his country will implode.

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Yisroel Davis • Jan 6, 2022 at 16:44

Ukraine was an independent country recovering from socialism. Then in 2014 the Obama-Biden administration together with the EU became active in trying to entice it to join NATO and the EU. Germany was particularly involved in fermenting local agitation. These powers bear the primary responsibility for the, estimated, 14,000 deaths in the subsequent violence.
It should be obvious that after what Russia suffered during WWII, it is unthinkable for her to tolerate either German boots or those of its proxies on that country's soil.

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Jose Escovar • Jan 6, 2022 at 15:02

Outrageous demands, asking for NATO to stop expanding next to Russian borders? Outrageous is not to see Russia's point of view. Outrageous is to see a coup organized in the Ukraine by the Obama administration in 2014 and Victoria Nulan's famous phrase "Fu..! the EU" meaning that the USA would not respect the agreement between Ukraine and the EU to have new elections in May 2014. The coup went ahead and they toppled a legitimately democratically elected president.

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Kiriaki Thanassouli • Jan 6, 2022 at 14:12

Why don't we just step back and take a deep breath and reassess. I am sure there is a peaceful way forward if there is a will for that. Just put for a minute your feet into the Russian's shoes to see how that feels like.
To compare the situation in Ukraine with the invasion of Czechoslovakia is absurd. I am sure this the sentiment across the majority of the people on both sides of the divide. Let Ukraine alone to sort itself out, and everyone foreign pulls out of it.
Ukraine, (that is the governing elite) has not been decent and reasonable to be worth any sacrifice from anyone.

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Gunnar Henrioulle • Jan 6, 2022 at 14:00

There are times when an asymmetrical response can serve to allay a confrontation otherwise headed to bloody showdown. Force as needed to redirect/eliminate the Iranian nuclear drive to Middle East dominance would bring Messrs. Putin & Xi out of their respective reveries.

Solid bulwark of Formosa territory should be in parallel with the Iranian surgery.

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Morris Givner • Jan 6, 2022 at 11:10

Russia has deep historical ties to the Ukraine going back 1400 years when Russia itself was founded in the Ukraine. The West including the U.S. particularly and the EU generally would be wise to keep their noses out of the Ukraine-Russian relationship. We shouldn't forget that the U.S. Obama Government staged and funded a recent coup that overthrew the Government of the Ukraine and replaced it with a Government which would be Pro Western and anti-Russian. We should also not forget that the Cuban crisis was initiated by John Kennedy who had ICBMs located in Turkey and directed at Moscow, the heart of Russia. The Russians have good reasons to view NATO as a Western military alliance which threatens their security. The West should be careful that it does not get into an accidental nuclear exchange with Russia over an unwise and a totally hypocritical foreign policy. The Earth will be a dead planet after any nuclear war.

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Kiri

Morris Givner • Jan 7, 2022 at 11:39

Very well said,
Glad to see reasonable people here and not only war-hawks.
Ukraine is not in NATO, and NATO has no business being there.
Ukraine and Russia are family, they will sort themselves out.
I hear the UK talking about their right to help; but they have even a stronger right, that is to refuse that help.
Donbas and Crimea and the entire south Ukraine are Russians in their vast majority and like to remain attached to Russia.

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Andrei M Chivvis

Morris Givner • Jan 7, 2022 at 15:08

Russia has deep ties to Ukraine. It sure does, like Holodomor of 1932/33. When people had to slaughter and eat their own children to stay alive.
If Biden resumes Trump's policy of supplying lethal aid, Ukrainians will fight, and Putin will not take the risk.

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Kiri

Andrei M Chivvis • Jan 8, 2022 at 16:56

The Holodomor of 1932/33 was a tragedy, but we have to say that the majority of the people who died of starvation were in fact Russians and not Ukrainians. It doesn't make absolutely any sense to bring that in today's situation. If the Ukrainians are poor today, they owe that exclusively to their corrupt government, which is supported by the West. And to think that a full blown war there is that is to win, is nothing but lunacy.

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Steven • Jan 6, 2022 at 10:44

Putin has nothing to worry about. He can do as he pleases. There won't be any response from the US at all except to capitulate to Russian demands.
NATO nations, especially the US, will negotiate and obtain some signatures on papers, but these are primarily for domestic consumption and it's unlikely Putin will ever actually abide by any agreements.
Usually these treaties just turn out to be empty promises. If NATO can't actually defend itself, it's time will have passed.
I certainly wouldn't expect any resistance by Germany, which is in process of completing the Nordstream 2 pipeline from Russia, and has just shut down a couple of nuclear plants, making itself even more energy dependent on Russia, and practically the first thing Biden did on entering the White House was removing Trump's holdup of Nordstream 2, saying it was almost completed already.
One thing you can say about Putin, he recognizes weakness when he sees it.
He is issuing ultimatums to NATO countries, which are really surrender documents.
Expect Versailles like agreements between Russia and NATO countries, while Ukraine, at least occupied territories such as Donbass and Crimea, will be signed over to Russia permanently, plus side agreements such as financial and trade concessions, essentially reparations to Russia from NATO and Ukraine.
The documents Russia is putting forward to NATO and Ukraine are surrender documents, make no mistake about what they are, and are essentially the blueprints for surrender of the West.

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Sonnyjim • Jan 6, 2022 at 10:24

In any bargaining or negotiation process, you always have your throw away items to show you are willing to compromise. I suspect that many of the Russian demands are just that.

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Chris Coles FRSA • Jan 6, 2022 at 09:43

History shows us that a strong man has nothing to fear; while a weak man needs to use force to get their way. Not a wonder that they had to imprison Alexei Anatolievich Navalny; his obvious moral and intellectual strength shows just how weak they are. Again, as this crisis develops, perhaps those that thought they could take and hold office in US politics without heeding the need for displaying strength in ethics and morality, might like to consider the long term damage they have done to their nation? Indeed, to the entire Western world? My earlier point needs repeating; no one starting wars ever win; if you cannot win the argument without punching the other in the face, all you do is display to the entire planet; how weak you are in reality.

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David Polovin • Jan 6, 2022 at 07:45

"If you want peace, prepare for war." This ancient wisdom, proven time and again, needs no embellishment but the West seems destined to repeat its history and prove the maxim once again.

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Dan Collins • Jan 6, 2022 at 07:09

Gatestone: Excellent report. Matters addressed are presently, critical, and with massive implications for the world. Putin really knows how to play hard cards. I so wish it was Trump on the other side of the table.
Much better than Stratfor was, even under Kaplan.
Holding my breath.

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Ted • Jan 6, 2022 at 06:49

It seems Putin is saying to NATO and the US, "You have no choice. Shoot yourself in the head, or I will!" He makes it sound like he will opt for a nuclear first strike if all his demands are not met. This must be insecurity talking. He is afraid.

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Jagdish N Singh • Jan 6, 2022 at 06:37

The author deserves applause for having defined well Russian President Vladimir Putin's designs in Eastern Europe, Central Europe and the Baltic states today. History is calling the West to write off Germany and demonstrate unambivalent support—military as well diplomatic-- for Ukrainian sovereignty. The posterity would not forgive the West if it did not learn from its fatal appeasement policy towards Nazi Germany .

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JOHN T. SHEA • Jan 6, 2022 at 06:29

The US spends TEN times as much on its military as Russia spends on its military. Why are we even talking about this Russian nonsense? Though the 2020s do now somewhat resemble the 1970s, Russia and China put together are not as relatively powerful as the old Soviet Union was then. The only response the US and its allies should make to the Russian demands is to do the exact opposite to what is demanded in every case.

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Terry Joseph Taylor • Jan 6, 2022 at 06:15

550 million Europeans can't take on 100 million European Russians? Germany, the country that proudly says "never again" (will the holocaust repeat itself), that constantly compared Trump to Hitler (I was living in Germany in 2016)? Eastern Europe that spends all its money on government officials, not on weaponry? The one action America needs to take: Remove the entire American military presence from German soil. Not one bullet to remain.

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Steven

Terry Joseph Taylor • Jan 6, 2022 at 17:22

Modern western countries are terrified of war, since there could be casualties. Casualties result in bad publicity and lead to a change in government.
The US is terrified it could have another Vietnam on its hands with casualty lists on television every evening during the news. The mounting casualties led to American withdrawal from Vietnam, and more recently, American withdrawal from Afghanistan. The American withdrawal from Afghanistan was a public relations disaster for the Biden administration, although they don't seem to have realized it.
America will avoid military conflict with Russia, no matter what it costs.
The Biden administration is committed to cutting the military, building social service programs such as Build Back Better, and absolute open borders policy to gain as many Democrat voters as possible, and portraying Republicans as racist. They aren't going to throw all that away to fight with Russia over Ukraine, another country that many if not most Americans couldn't find on a map.

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Geoffrey Rogg • Jan 6, 2022 at 06:15

For the very first time I am in total disagreement with my favourite publication Gatestone. Ukraine historically an integral part of the Russian multi faceted national entity with Kiev actually once its capital. Its separation from Russia is as unthinkable and unacceptable as would be the separation of Scotland, Wales or Northern Ireland from the United Kingdom or the secession of the State of Vermont to Canada from the United States of America. History cannot be rewritten to suit the hostile political interests of others. Russia should be embraced as a God fearing, highly cultured, exceptionally talented and brave nation. Many choose to facilitate and accommodate extremist regimes like that of Teheran while maintaining a resolutely and unjustifiable hostility to Russia.

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Kiri

Geoffrey Rogg • Jan 7, 2022 at 11:14

I full support your statement, it is balanced and historically very true.
See many people blinded by their hatred for Russia and makes me very sad.
The West would be well advised to cooperate with Russia rather than try to diminish her.
Live and let live; there is room for everyone on this planet.

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Geoffrey Rogg

Kiri • Jan 8, 2022 at 16:49

They are brainwashed by liars.

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Homero

Kiri • Feb 5, 2022 at 17:52

I agree with you. Putin despite all his faults as a human being should be respected. He is highly respected by a good majority in Russia. Very corrupt politicians (in most of Europe) and the current USA government (that resorted to chronic election fraud to win)----they are looking for a scapegoat. They think "let us blame that terrible man----you know who----for the critical situation in Ukraine." Putin is NOWHERE LIKE Hitler or Stalin or the terrorist regimes in Iran and .....(other names can be given).

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Dave Langcake • Jan 6, 2022 at 05:59

He can't get his Warships out of the Black Sea! Make him pay hard Cash for each Warship allowed through the Dardanelles....!

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Kenneth Stephen Besig • Jan 6, 2022 at 05:43

Stalinism has returned to Russia, with only one difference, Stalin attempted to hide his true intentions while Putin has shown his aggressive intentions openly. Sadly the democratic West is behaving exactly as it behaved during WWII and is unwilling to confront the Russian threat with it's powerful military and economy. I pray that a new Churchill will arise in the West and save it from Russian aggression.

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Steven

Kenneth Stephen Besig • Jan 6, 2022 at 19:35

Trump did attempt to rally the NATO countries, or at least persuade them to participate in their own defense.
The NATO nations were horrified, although some Baltic nations did increase defense spending to meet their pledge, but certainly not Germany, which was steadfast in its resistance to increasing expenditures too pay for its own defense, although it did commit troops to Afghanistan under NATO obligations. The German Air Force was largely incapable of combat, only 8 or 10 Eurofighters combat capable due to defective infrared imaging which wouldn't signal if the aircraft was under missile attack.
I haven't heard recently if deficiencies have been corrected.
Trump's attempts to persuade European countries to meet their pledge of 2% of GDP was met with widespread hostility, not from our enemies, but from our friends.
Why wouldn't Putin consider NATO a hopeless invalid incapable of defense, and now the Biden administration is committed to a nuclear agreement with Iran, the Iranians threatening annihilation of the US on a regular basis.
The US is not a reliable ally, deserting millions in Vietnam, then more recently in Afghanistan,
Even France recalled its diplomat from Washington after being left out of negotiations between Australia and the US on a 40 billion dollar nuclear submarine deal, while Australia had a prior agreement about buying submarines from France, the agreement being broken, apparently behind France's back, referred to as a "stab in the back".
Churchill apparently was able to rally the English to save themselves while their Army was in defeat on the very beaches of Dunkirk, but I wouldn't expect anyone to be able to persuade the European NATO partners if Putin massing 200,000 Russian troops on the border of Ukraine can't do it.
They deserve their fate, or rather doom.

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