China Prepared to Launch Hostilities Against India Along Disputed Himalayan Border

by Lawrence A. Franklin
December 2, 2021 at 4:00 am

https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/17994/china-india-himalayas-border

While working talks have resumed, both China and India have reinforced their air and ground assets. China has advanced fighter jets at three air bases within striking distance of Indian military positions.
Indian diplomats have loudly denounced a recent law passed by the Chinese national legislature, the National People's Congress, which makes it mandatory for China's leaders never to negotiate away one inch of professed Chinese territory. The legislation referred to China's sovereignty and territorial integrity as "sacred and inviolable."
China also has underscored its inflexibility by constructing extended civilian housing along the Line of Actual Control, thereby defying Indian counterclaims that these future habitats are being built on territory seized by China.
It is likely that China will again initiate armed skirmishes along disputed border regions to test the Biden Administration's will to defend U.S. allies.
China will doubtless factor U.S. responses to its attacks on allied countries in the Indo-Pacific region into its decision-making calculus on how best to seize Taiwan.

Despite bilateral military talks between Chinese and Indian officers, tensions remain high along the "Line of Actual Control" border between China and India, where military clashes occurred in May and June 2020. Both countries have reinforced their air and ground assets. China has advanced fighter jets at three air bases within striking distance of Indian military positions. Pictured: An Indian army convoy travels towards Leh through Zoji La, a high mountain pass bordering China on June 13, 2021 in Ladakh, India. (Photo by Yawar Nazir/Getty Images)

Chinese missile-laden bombers flew over a contested border area with India recently, following the breakdown of bilateral talks between Indian and Chinese regional military commanders.

The near-simultaneity of the collapse of military negotiations and the threatening fly-over by People's Liberation Army Air Force bombers underscores China's willingness to punish India for having resisted Beijing's territorial claims and aggression in the region.

China's aggressive stance may also be, in part, motivated by Communist Party General Secretary Xi Jinping's testing of the U.S. effort to develop strategic cooperation among America's Pacific allies in order to curb Chinese expansionist policies. China is most likely also attempting to weaken the resolve of the non-U.S. countries of the so-called Quad -- India, Australia and Japan -- to rely on American promises to defend them.

Military clashes between China and India occurred in early May 2020, continuing until mid-June, along the "Line of Actual Control" (LAC) border near India's Eastern Ladakh region, which abuts the Chinese territory of the Tibetan (Xizang) Autonomous Region. After these clashes, China and India implemented a three-tiered negotiating system between field-grade officers, colonel-level officers, and general officers of the two sides. This bilateral de-confliction apparatus, called the Working Mechanism for Consultation and Coordination (WMCC) between Chinese and Indian Corps Commanders, collapsed in acrimony during the WMCC's 13^th meeting in New Delhi.

During the hiatus period between WMCC meetings, China's Air Force, in a clear warning to India, dispatched H-6K bombers to the disputed border. Subsequently, on November 18, China and India's foreign ministries agreed to hold a 14^th WMCC session in the near future, in an apparent effort to restore border stability. During the months that followed the deadly clashes in 2020, during WMCC sessions, both sides withdrew forward-deployed heavy weapons in the Gorga and Pangong Tso (Pandong) glacial lake disengagement areas. But in the bitterly contested Eastern Ladakh area of Hot Springs, concentrations of bilateral troops remain dangerously confrontational and proximate.

Despite these bilateral military talks between Chinese and Indian officers, tensions along the LAC remain high. While working talks have resumed, both China and India have reinforced their air and ground assets. China has advanced fighter jets at three air bases within striking distance of Indian military positions. In Ladakh, India has deployed Apache attack helicopters, and MiG-29 and SU-30 fighter aircraft. India also has deployed air defense weapons near the LAC and reportedly plans to purchase Russia's most advanced deployed S-400 surface-to-air missile system.

The latest political moves by both China and India also indicate that border tensions between the two nuclear-armed rivals will continue. Indian diplomats have loudly denounced a recent land border law passed by the Chinese national legislature, the National People's Congress, which makes it mandatory for China's leaders never to negotiate away one inch of professed Chinese territory. The legislation referred to China's sovereignty and territorial integrity as "sacred and inviolable." China also has underscored its inflexibility by constructing extended civilian housing along the Line of Actual Control, thereby defying Indian counterclaims that these future habitats are being built on territory seized by China.

It is likely that China will again initiate armed skirmishes along disputed border regions to test the Biden Administration's will to defend U.S. allies.

China will doubtless factor U.S. responses to its attacks on allied countries in the Indo-Pacific region into its decision-making calculus on how best to seize Taiwan.

Dr. Lawrence A. Franklin was the Iran Desk Officer for Secretary of Defense Rumsfeld. He also served on active duty with the U.S. Army and as a Colonel in the Air Force Reserve.

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Related Topics: China, India

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Comment on this item

12 Reader Comments

Mark Marshall • Dec 6, 2021 at 11:22

Generating force. This could be bad.

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HNR • Dec 3, 2021 at 06:51

Like the India-Pakistan dispute over Kashmir the India-China dispute on the border will continue indefinitely and is unlikely to be resolved in the near future. Decades of talks have failed to bridge trust deficits. The outcome of China's hard stand, its wolf-warrior policy on the border and other neighbours, the impact is starting to be felt, with India progressively moving away from China and embracing better relations with other countries like the QUAD. It is interesting to note that China is pursuing a policy similar in Taiwan, Japan, Philippines and other South East Asian nations - a form of "grey zone' warfare. That China is adept in protracting negotiations only to buy time and consolidate its territorial gains is well accepted. This is apparent with the rapid build of airports, roads and railway lines connecting its border areas. Building villages near the border is similar to building islands is South China Sea and claiming it is China property.

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tom • Dec 3, 2021 at 01:45

C'mon man! Not only are the ChiComms not bad folks, folks - they also pay very well.

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Mark Turner • Dec 3, 2021 at 00:13

China sabre-rattling again. The CCP only does this with countries that it feels it can intimidate and indeed has been 'trying it on' with my country Australia for the past two years; going from trade tariffs and embargos to actually stating it has us nuclear targeted. We have basically told them to 'go p*ss up a rope' as we don't need or want them in our lives. Neither does the rest of the world.

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Chris Coles FRSA • Dec 2, 2021 at 17:04

In every nation there will always be those that threaten the peaceful existence of others; such people are always trying their best to start fights. Any fool can start a punch up, or spray acid over the neighbours fence to damage their garden. Civilisation gave us laws and a police force to curtail their activities; allowing the hard working peaceful majority to live in peace. Recently, China's leadership has taken to walking the road away from peaceful civilisation . . . towards threats of conflict with their neighbours. Thus it is surely reasonable to conclude that China is no longer to be considered to be a civilised nation.

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Harvey L • Dec 2, 2021 at 15:53

With the Biden administration showing day by day how weak it is domestically and overseas it's no wonder China Iran Russia are advancing into areas they are not wanted, sooner rather than later after the Afghanistan debacle a conflict is on the cards.

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Ele Bienenfeld • Dec 2, 2021 at 14:51

Dear Colonel, As we had previously discussed,I have been aware of the 2020 skirmishes and based on the reporting perceived that the Indian fighters outperformed their Chinese adversaries. It is important that they continue to do so as it will stiffen the backbone of their Quad allies. America is no longer a reliable partner in international affairs. We are truly a paper Tiger. In the new post-American world, India, Japan, Israel etc. may or may not be able to count on America to sell them weapons. They need to form manufacturing alliances as well as defense pacts. What you point out affirms the necessity of a Quad alliance that has the resources and willingness to fight. If they do so neither the Chinese or the Russians will be able to threaten them.

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Alexander Scipio • Dec 2, 2021 at 12:52

India has nukes. Use them. It's what they are for: Defending territory and killing aggressors. Lack of nukes - surrendering them voluntarily - is why Ukraine is screwed.

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Steven Andros • Dec 2, 2021 at 11:26

Dating back to Carter, whenever there is a Democrat administration, the bad actors of the world can be counted on to "test" him to see what they can get away with, and history has repeatedly proven that they can pretty much operate with impunity. For the last half century, the Democrats have taken the position of being the "anti war" party, and national security issues are not taken seriously.

Naturally, the world see them as the embodiment of weakness.

Weakness is provocative and all but invites war, as evidenced by Putin's aggression towards the Ukraine and China's aggression towards Taiwan and India. Yes, both tested Trump, but in the end, wisely chose to exercise self restraint, rightly concerned with the consequences of pushing too far.

They laugh at Biden, and hold him in utter contempt. The odds of warfare, perhaps nuclear warfare, have substantially increased.

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Hamish MacDonald • Dec 2, 2021 at 05:24

Good article.
"It is likely that China will again initiate armed skirmishes along disputed border regions to test the Biden Administration's will to defend U.S. allies."
Indeed, as has it has done before.

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Richard Kronenfeld

Hamish MacDonald • Dec 7, 2021 at 19:09

This administration is unwilling to defend our own southern border, let alone defend any of our allies.

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Hamish MacDonald

Richard Kronenfeld • Dec 9, 2021 at 05:59

It will be a major miracle if Biden actually GETS to the next election.
And Kamala Harris is about the weakest option to follow him if he decides to pull out.
Its civil law is beginning to show cracks in the system.
Ted Cruz is trying hard, as is Lindsay Graham, and some media (Tucker Carlson) offering insights for stability, but only 27% of the U.S. trust the media, and few now believe in American strength.
Its birthrate is 1.8 which is still 0.2 below breakeven, and that represents terminal cancer for the American culture. Europe is much worse, and Canada is 1.5. Afghanistan is 4.3 by contrast.

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