Communist China's Aggression in the South China Sea

by John Richardson
October 7, 2021 at 5:00 am

https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/17838/china-aggression-south-china-sea

In March, a huge Chinese fishing fleet descended on Whitsun Reef, which lies within the exclusive economic zone of the Philippines. The Philippine government called on China to cease "militarizing the area". Almost eight months later, however, more than 150 Chinese vessels reportedly remain in Philippine waters.
China's illegal takeover of Hong Kong and Taliban's seizure of Afghanistan, where the US even failed to save all US citizens -- China could be planning to use force to capture Taiwan much sooner than that -- the opportunity looks inviting. The question is: if China attacks Taiwan, whether the US will defend the island -- or even put in place serious deterrents. It will not help anyone except the Chinese Communist Party if consequences for invading Taiwan consist of nothing more damaging than "strong letter to follow."
China considers almost all of the South China Sea... part of Chinese territory. The Permanent Court of Arbitration in the Hague firmly rejected China's sovereignty claim in 2016 but five years after that ruling, China continues to reject the court's authority.
"The term 'sea areas under the jurisdiction of the People's Republic of China' is not defined in the law and is purposely vague. Enacting ambiguous and imprecise laws allows China to alter its position on the applicability of the law based on the circumstances at the time." -- Captain Raul Pedrozo, Professor of International Law at the U.S. Naval War College, "International Law Studies", Vol. 97, 2021.
"China is once again testing the international community to gauge how it will react to the enactment of yet another maritime law that exceeds the permissible jurisdictional limits of international law, as reflected in UNCLOS [The United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea.] China will undoubtedly use the new law to engage in grey zone operations below the threshold of armed conflict to intimidate its neighbors and further erode the rule of law at sea in the Indo-Pacific region." -- Captain Raul Pedrozo, Professor of International Law at the U.S. Naval War College, "International Law Studies", Vol. 97, 2021.
The revised maritime law came into effect just seven months after China's new coastguard law went into force on February 1. The Chinese coast guard law gives China's coast guard authority to use lethal force on foreign ships operating in Chinese waters, including disputed areas such as the South China Sea. In January, the Philippines filed a diplomatic protest against the Chinese coast guard law saying that it is a "verbal threat of war to any country that defies the law".

In March, a huge Chinese fishing fleet descended on Whitsun Reef, which lies within the exclusive economic zone of the Philippines. The Philippine government called on China to cease "militarizing the area". Almost eight months later, however, more than 150 Chinese vessels reportedly remain in Philippine waters. Pictured: Whitsun Reef, as seen from space. (Image Source: United States Geological Survey/NASA/Wikimedia Commons)

Tensions continue to rise in the South China Sea, as China, or, rightly, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), ramps up its military activities in the region. Within only the first four days of October, China conducted a record-breaking 150 incursions into Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ) -- after China's People Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF) had already, in September, set another monthly record with 117 incursions, some with nuclear-capable bombers, fighter jets and reconnaissance planes. The incursions were reportedly the highest monthly number on record since Taiwan's Ministry of National Defense began reporting Chinese aerial incursions 13 months ago. In addition, in August, the first-ever incursion of Chinese military helicopters into Taiwan's ADIZ took place, with experts suggesting that the PLA was probing Taiwanese defense capabilities by using different aircraft.

Also in August and September, China conducted assault drills near Taiwan with war ships, early-warning aircraft, anti-submarine aircraft and bombers. "The joint fire assault and other drills staged by the Eastern Theater Command troops are a necessary action to further safeguard China's sovereignty under the current security situation in the Taiwan Straits," Colonel Shi Yi, spokesperson for the PLA Eastern Theater Command said, "and also a solemn response to the interference of foreign forces and the provocation of 'Taiwan independence' secessionists." Shi stated that military exercises would be "conducted regularly" based on the situation in the Taiwan Strait and the "need to maintain sovereign security". China has conducted 20 naval island-control exercises in the first half of 2021, compared to 13 in all of 2020.

This activity -- in addition to diplomatic and economic pressure -- is evidently meant to exhaust Taiwan, force it to capitulate to China and relinquish its independence without China firing a shot. "China is pursuing an all-of-party approach that seeks to coerce, corrupt and co-opt the international community," former commander of the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command, Philip Davidson, recently warned, "in a way in which they may be able to achieve their geopolitical edge... to force Taiwan to capitulate because of extreme, diplomatic, economic, pressure and strain". Failing that coercion, Davidson estimates:

"the changes in the [People's Liberation Army]'s capabilities, with their missile and cyber forces, and their ability to train, advance their joint interoperability and their combat support logistics, all those trend lines indicate to me that within the next six years they will have the capability and the capacity to forcibly reunify with Taiwan, should they choose force to do it."

With China assessing America's lack of resolve to protect its allies -- China's illegal takeover of Hong Kong and Taliban's seizure of Afghanistan, where the US even failed to save all US citizens -- China could be planning to use force to capture Taiwan much sooner than that -- while the opportunity looks inviting. The question is: if China attacks Taiwan, whether the US will defend the island -- or even put in place serious deterrents. It will not help anyone except the Chinese Communist Party if the consequences for invading Taiwan consist of nothing more damaging than "strong letter to follow."

Taiwan's Defense Minister Chiu Kuo-cheng announced on October 6 that China already has the ability to invade his country. "By 2025, China will bring the cost and attrition to its lowest. It has the capacity now, but it will not start a war easily, having to take many other things into consideration."

Elsewhere in the South China Sea, also in September, the PLA air force conducted troop transports with a number of large Y-20 transport aircraft to three airstrips in the Spratly archipelago, where China has built and militarized artificial islands on top of the reefs, according to Chinese state media. Global Times, the Chinese Communist Party's (CCP) mouthpiece, wrote that the aircraft "conducted amphibious landing drills under complex conditions, showing the PLA's capabilities in safeguarding peace and stability in the region." It was the first time that the PLA confirmed that it had used aircraft of this type to transport personnel to the islands. Vietnam, which also claims sovereignty over the disputed Spratly archipelago, protested China's transport mission to the islands and called it a violation of Vietnam's sovereignty.

"Surely, this announced feat is aimed at demonstrating the PLA's force projection capability over vast maritime distances across the South China Sea," said Collin Koh, a research fellow at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies in Singapore.

"And definitely it's aimed also to demonstrate that the airstrips constructed on the artificial islands are capable of supporting flight operations by large aircraft. If Y-20 can be supported, so will the H-6 bomber."

China considers almost all of the South China Sea, an area covering roughly 3.5 million square kilometers, and its estimated 190 trillion cubic feet of natural gas and 11 billion barrels of oil, in addition to maritime resources such as fish, part of Chinese territory. The Permanent Court of Arbitration in the Hague firmly rejected China's sovereignty claim in 2016 but five years after that ruling, China continues to reject the court's authority. China's claim to sovereignty over the South China Sea and its willingness and ability to pursue it has long been creating friction with countries in the area, who stake their own claims to parts of the sea, including Brunei, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Taiwan, and Vietnam.

China also regularly uses its large civilian fishing fleet to further its goals in the South China Sea. In March, a huge Chinese fishing fleet descended on Whitsun Reef, which lies within the exclusive economic zone of the Philippines. The Philippine government called on China to cease "militarizing the area". Almost eight months later, however, more than 150 Chinese vessels reportedly remain in Philippine waters. On September 29, Philippine Foreign Secretary Teodoro Locsin Jr. said he wanted diplomatic protests "filed on China's radio challenges against Philippine maritime patrols, unlawful restriction of Filipino fishermen from Bajo de Masinloc (Scarborough Shoal), and the continued presence of Chinese ships in the vicinity of Iroquois Reef..."

In addition, China's newly revised Maritime Traffic Safety Law (MTSL), which entered into force on September 1, requires certain foreign vessels sailing into Chinese "territorial waters" to notify Beijing in advance. Foreign vessels such as foreign submarines, nuclear-powered ships, ships carrying radioactive, toxic or hazardous materials and any other vessels that "may endanger the maritime traffic safety" of China are required to provide information including their ships' names and numbers, recent locations, satellite telephone numbers and dangerous goods. "Article 2 of the MTSL expands application of the law from 'coastal waters' to 'sea areas under the jurisdiction of the People's Republic of China.'"

"The term 'sea areas under the jurisdiction of the People's Republic of China' is not defined in the law and is purposely vague", wrote Captain Raul Pedrozo, Professor of International Law at the U.S. Naval War College.

"Enacting ambiguous and imprecise laws allows China to alter its position on the applicability of the law based on the circumstances at the time. Nonetheless, given China's excessive maritime claims and prior enforcement activities, the MTSL is likely intended to apply to all waters and seabed areas (1) encompassed by the nine-dash line in the South China Sea, (2) extending to the Okinawa Trough in the East China Sea, and (3) beyond Ieodo (Socotra Rock) in the Yellow Sea...China is once again testing the international community to gauge how it will react to the enactment of yet another maritime law that exceeds the permissible jurisdictional limits of international law, as reflected in UNCLOS [The United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea.] China will undoubtedly use the new law to engage in grey zone operations below the threshold of armed conflict to intimidate its neighbors and further erode the rule of law at sea in the Indo-Pacific region."

Vice Admiral Michael McAllister, commander of the US Coast in the Pacific said the revised law was "very concerning", and seemed "to run directly counter to international agreements and norms", while building "foundations for instability and potential conflicts" if enforced.

"This looks like part of China's strategy of casting legal nets over areas that it claims ... to 'normalize' these claims," said Robert Ward, senior fellow for Japanese security studies at The International Institute for Strategic Studies in London. "Enforcement will be difficult, but this may matter less for Beijing than the slow accumulation of what it sees as a legal underpinning". The Philippine Defense Secretary Delfin Lorenzana has already said that his country will ignore the revised maritime law. "Our stand on that is we do not honour those laws by the Chinese within the West Philippine Sea because we consider that we have the sovereign right within this waters. So we will not recognise this law of the Chinese," Lorenzana said during an event marking the Philippines' Mutual Defense Treaty (MDT) with the United States.

The revised maritime law came into effect just seven months after China's new coastguard law went into force on February 1. The Chinese coast guard law gives China's coast guard authority to use lethal force on foreign ships operating in Chinese waters, including disputed areas such as the South China Sea. In January, the Philippines filed a diplomatic protest against the Chinese coast guard law saying that it is a "verbal threat of war to any country that defies the law".

John Richardson is a researcher based in the United States.

© 2024 Gatestone Institute. All rights reserved. The articles printed here do not necessarily reflect the views of the Editors or of Gatestone Institute. No part of the Gatestone website or any of its contents may be reproduced, copied or modified, without the prior written consent of Gatestone Institute.

Related Topics: China

Recent Articles by John Richardson

Who Is Actually Running the Country?, 2024-10-28
Iran's Gaza War: Unfortunately, A Ceasefire Deal Will Not Bring the Hostages Back, 2024-09-02
Release the Hostages, 2024-06-02
National Security Threat: Another Latin American Country Chooses China, 2023-03-28
China Inaugurating a New World Order?, 2023-03-17

receive the latest by email: subscribe to the free gatestone institute mailing list.

Comment on this item

15 Reader Comments

cammo99 • Oct 8, 2021 at 07:24

China would be invading Taiwan, not capturing it. Taiwan only became important as a potential territory to conquer because the Nationalist Chinese withdrew from the mainland and sought sanctuary there from the Communists. The actual Taiwanese people's rights have been entirely ignored as an independent nation that has no direct commonality with the Chinese mainland and has prided its history on independence a fact that has been much made of in the recent political campaigns of the Taiwanese government. But no one is asking what native Taiwanese think.

Reply->

Hamish MacDonald • Oct 8, 2021 at 05:51

Good article.
China's aim at world domination, known for over a decade ago, comes with a distinctly Communist profile. The simple "logic" of Communism that if something is good for Communism it is good, and if something is bad for Communism it is bad has been in vogue ever since Karl Marx had his say.
There is no "moral" in it and no "social justice", but cold hard Chinese diplomacy in action and Taiwan is in the firing line just as Hong Kong was.
Russia capitulated, eventually. If China is to change it must be in the same way, a change to their error of Communist doctrine.

Reply->

Bull Herman • Oct 8, 2021 at 00:51

The survival of each status quo in South China Sea depends on the US.
Interestingly, there's a few words communist governments like to throw around. Imperialism. Fascism. Adventurism.
Scary when these words apply to a predatory government such as CCP.

Reply->

Terry T • Oct 7, 2021 at 15:40

China never says what it really thinks or considers. China is the rebel province. The real China is Taiwan. I am a student of the Chinese language, study daily. I want to watch mainland China's programs, but they nothing but nonsense sicko weird content. So i end up watching Taiwan programs, which are like a different world (but I have trouble reading the traditional Chinese text). Non-speakers of Chinese would view this situation much different... if you could just understand what each side talks about.

Reply->

Rob Porter • Oct 7, 2021 at 14:06

Almost needless to say, Biden America's perceived weakness, demonstrated by its failure to challenge China's aggressive and provocative actions, China's obvious contempt for international law, and America's utterly inept performance in Afghanistan, encourages China's hostile actions whether it be in Philippine territorial waters, its lawless actions over Hong Kong, or against Taiwan. Among many other questions, this raises questions about the point and value of the U.S. creating the AUKUS Alliance. Is now tearing apart and internally chaotic America serious? All things considered, do Britain and Australia any longer take America seriously, trust it, and if they do, why? What of Biden America are they seeing that I do not? Other than AUKUS watching China, do they seriously think that poorly-led, bungling America would take aggressive action against China? I do not. I think that America is now an equivalent of cowardly, appeasing Neville Chamberlain Britain. Simply consider the character of America's leader and the people who serve him, the pathetic character of his chairman of the joint chiefs of staff, Mark Milley, who has consorted with China's military chief, when doing so betrayed the former president. Yet Milley, from his performance over Afghanistan and under questioning in Congress exposed as something of a buffoon, retains his position. Under Biden standards must surely have sunk to an all-time low. This is a witless, morals-destitute U.S. administration that, come what may, is determined to negotiate a nuclear deal with Iran - a friend of China and the world's biggest exporter of Islamic terrorism. Devoid of a leader with principles and wise judgement, America is now a pathetic reed in the wind, adrift, rudderless and clueless. The admiration I once had is long gone.

Reply->

oldguyincolorado • Oct 7, 2021 at 12:05

There is a reason why we have a new arrangement with Australia regarding nuke subs. There is a reason why India, Japan, Australia and others are beginning to collaborate in this part of the world; this along with our ships sailing through the various straits in the area over the objections of the Chinese. This article points out just some of the reasons for all of this activity.

What we also need to do is to provide Taiwan with a more robust missile defense system and a lot of short range ballistic capability in the event of any invasion attempt by China. China must learn that its cities can come under attack if it attacks Taiwan. We need to equip Taiwan like we should have equipped the Ukraine, give it far more than just defensive weapons and let China know that it can be very badly hurt in the event of a war against a people who are not afraid to defend themselves. The last thing that China needs is having its very expensive and vulnerable infrastructure under bombardment from an enemy whose very survival is on the line. It is not all that hard to equip a few "commercial" ships with a ballistic capability, just to make a point. There is just so much area that China can defend with a "lot of incoming". If the Iranians can hit Saudi oil storage tanks with pinpoint accuracy, why shouldn't Taiwan be able to hit mainland Chinese facilities as well. Something that really hurts. Time to stop playing just defense. And China can be made to feel fear. The Jan. 6 fiasco proved that, if it proved nothing else.

Reply->

terry • Oct 7, 2021 at 08:47

War is here. A new axis is in play, whether we like it or not; the little would-be, red dragon god has it's talons and teeth sunk deep into the entire world, and especially the district of crooks! Both parties there are so sold out, wholly bought; the 'leavings' in Afghanistan, our woke military, our compromised halls of higher learning, our greedy mega-corporations, our trendy shallow elites, and fools who run the West are NOT harbingers of good tidings! The world has been played, and now, war is here: the marxist, Islamist, and crime cartels are all set in place. And we all know it. The crooked elitist tyrants, tycoons, and terrorist are about to strike the West, and the rest of the world with it! Way to go Joe!

Reply->

Chris Coles • Oct 7, 2021 at 07:26

Bullies only respond to returned violence, and that applies to everyone from the local bully who sprays acid on your garden, right the way through to the likes of the Chinese Communist party. if the law will not serve to protect; then the only thing left is to use the classic human methodology that has stood the test of history; let them know for certain that either they pack it in or you are going to punch them in the face. The bully has to know the limits, or they just keep bullying. Someone has to have the brass gall to stand up and tell them what the consequences will be with a certainty that brings the bullying to a stop. No, never the easy option; but then consider what happens if no one has the courage to do so. Bullying is primitive uncivilised behaviour; and always has to be confronted to bring it to a full stop.

Reply->

Arish Sahan • Oct 7, 2021 at 07:18

Human being are special. No one should control them. They are more creative when free.
China's policies are bad for human development. They use humans for economic growth but they are destroying future creativity. Sooner or later the Chinese will destroy this existing system to seek freedom from communist thinking.

Reply->

ROMann • Oct 7, 2021 at 05:43

Any way you cut it, war is coming. Just a matter of when. It won't be pretty. Nukes will be used. Life will take a big turn for the worse.

Reply->

Richard Kronenfeld

ROMann • Oct 7, 2021 at 20:52

That conclusion assumes that the Administration would lift a finger to defend this country. Didn't Gen. Milley promise the Chinese to give them advance notice of an American attack?

Reply->

Bull Herman

ROMann • Oct 8, 2021 at 00:55

Does Biden really have the stomach and the will?
Is US military leadership competent enough to carry it out?
Can Red China pull off a Pearl Harbor-type easy takeover of Taiwan?

Reply->

Solomon • Oct 7, 2021 at 05:24

Chinese aggression is no doubt a world problem. Judith and dozens of others with good intentions can draw attention to potential solutions that might create movements to start dealing with the aggression. If people and companies did what they can to avoid buying Chinese products and those service providers who compromise their integrity for the markets China opens to them, a beginning of a feeling of doing could start and wake people up to the need of resisting even if the government leaders might be compromised or without backbones. Go for it Bergman, do.

Reply->

Mikial

Solomon • Oct 7, 2021 at 14:16

I get what you're saying, but the USA isn't the only country buying Chinese products and even a boycott wouldn't do a thing to prevent China from going after Taiwan. Only the international community standing up to them will save Taiwan, and I wouldn't count on Biden to stand up to anyone.

Reply->

Solomon

Mikial • Oct 8, 2021 at 08:42

The ÙSA is only a part of the world and has itself played a large part causing the mess. I address the individuals living on our planet. Drips can bore holes in rock.

Reply->