Iran Speeding to Nuclear Weapons Breakout

by Bassam Tawil
February 13, 2015 at 5:00 am

https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/5213/iran-nuclear-weapons-breakout

Translations of this item:

Iran, with its proxies in Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, Bahrain and Yemen, has surrounded all the oil fields in the region and is currently busy encircling Jordan, Israel and Palestine.
Iran not only reaches now from Afghanistan to the Mediterranean, but Iranian Shi'ites have been spreading out through Africa and South America.
By the time U.S. President Barack Obama leaves office, Iran will not only have nuclear breakout capability, but also the intercontinental ballistic missiles to deliver its nuclear warheads to Europe and North America.
If Iran can finally drive the U.S. out of the Gulf by threatening U.S. assets, it will be free to pursue still further expansion.
If the deal signed with Iran is full of loopholes, it is Obama who will be blamed. Does Obama really want his legacy to be, "The President who was even a bigger fool than Neville Chamberlain"? He will not be seen as "Nixon in China." He will be seen as the Eid al-Adha lamb.

Recently, foreign ministers from the European Union (EU) have been holding meetings with representatives of the Arab and Muslim world, including Turkey and Qatar, with the intention of forming a "joint task force to fight Islamist terrorism."

Turkey and Qatar, for example, directly encourage Islamist terrorism, thus there is no way they can be part of a task force to act against it.

In some Islamic thinking, such nonsense, because of its certain lack of ever seeing the light, is merely a prologue to the ultimate war between Gog and Magog ("yagug wamagu"), and heralds the End of Days.

The Arab-Muslim world engages in perpetual internal strife. Iran, for instance, with its proxies in Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, Bahrain and Yemen, has surrounded all the oil fields in the region, and is currently busy encircling Jordan, Israel and the Palestinians. Iran not only reaches now from Afghanistan to the Mediterranean, but Iranian Shi'ites have been spreading out through Africa and South America. Another sign of the End of Days is the United States' collaboration with Iran against the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria. It means the world will eventually pay for America's looking the other way while the Iranians are building nuclear bombs in their cellars.

These cellars may currently be distant from the shores of the United States, but they are close to all the oil fields in the Middle East. By the time U.S. President Barack Obama leaves office, Iran will not only have nuclear breakout capability, but also intercontinental ballistic missiles to deliver its nuclear warheads. Its next target will be U.S. assets in the Gulf. If Iran can finally drive the U.S. "Great Satan" out of the Gulf by threatening U.S. assets, it will be free to pursue still further expansion.

These are or will be the victims of America's determination to drag out the problem of an exploding Middle East. That way, U.S. President Barack Obama can hand the region over to the next president, while forever pretending that the vacuum created by pulling U.S. troops out of the Middle East -- now being filled by Iran, the Islamic State and other terror groups -- had nothing to do with him.

This situation leaves, ironically, the lone voice of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu crying in the wilderness. As much as many of us may not like him or the people he represents, he is one of the two world leaders in the West telling the truth, warning of what is to come (Geert Wilders of the Netherlands is the other). This burden of responsibility for his people (how many of us wish our leaders had even a bit of that?) has earned him only the venom of the Obama Administration, who see him as trying to spoil their strategy of leading by procrastination.

It is also becoming increasingly clear that the Obama Administration's policy consists of running after Iran, in order to concede everything it wants, just to be able wave a piece of paper not worth the ink on it, claiming there is "a deal." Iran, for its part, would probably prefer not to sign anything, and most likely will not. Meanwhile, both sides continue strenuously to claim the opposite.

Western leaders just seem not to be programmed to understand the capabilities of other leaders, and how they, too, negotiate, manipulate and hide behind lies. Obama's Russian "Reset Button" did not work; his "Al Qaeda is on the run," did not work; "We shall never let Russia take the Ukraine" did not work; and the unwinnable Israel-Palestinian "Peace Process" did not work.

Obama, in order to wave a piece of paper not worth the ink on it, seems eager to fall victim to bogus promises, worthless treaties and other leaders' outright lies -- only to look an even bigger fool than Britain's former Prime Minister, Neville Chamberlain. After meeting with Germany's with Adolf Hitler in 1938, Chamberlain returned to Britain boasting of "peace in our time." But Chamberlain did not have the luxury of seeing a Chamberlain duped before him. If the deal signed with Iran is full of loopholes, it is Obama who will be blamed. Does Obama really want his legacy to be, "The president who was an even bigger fool than Neville Chamberlain"? He will not be seen as "Nixon in China." He will be seen as the Eid al-Adha lamb.

Bassam Tawil is a scholar based in the Middle East.

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Related Topics: Iran, Iranian Nuclear Program

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Comment on this item

19 Reader Comments

Frendy More • Feb 20, 2015 at 05:14

Self appointed role, assumed by USA to be world police, which US found itself playing by dint of it's economic, political (Democracy) and ideological placement it's propagating, specifically from the 30s, before and after second world war till date,has been very herculean and daunting. It should be appreciated that this role is taking it's negative toll on the country's economy both in human and material. I think sanitizing the world to be a safe abode of man, free of terrorism and threat should not be saddled on US alone but should be a concerted effort consolidated by the western committee of nations and US; Obama is and can never be an island from his nation, but he speaks the mind of his people, reflecting on present mood of US economy and past US engagements in the middle east.

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Menahem Lester • Feb 16, 2015 at 14:08

"The president who was an even bigger fool than Neville Chamberlain"?
I suggest that this line is unfair, at least to Chamberlain. He did at least have some honour and gave way gracefully to WSC when he realised what he'd done.
Obama wouldn't retreat - or at least not from his perceived world-beating policy. This guy is so full (or is that fool) of himself that he'd be unable to countenance that he'd ever make a mistake.

We all make mistakes; the great American electorate did it twice.....

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Icepilot • Feb 15, 2015 at 16:17

Iran and President Obama will sign, democrats will wave and Europe will swoon. But will America agree? Will Hillary?

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Dr CALVO • Feb 15, 2015 at 10:07

Obama does not need any more the oil situated in the Saudi Arabia and the other Gulf countries. The USA has enough of oil and do not need to buy.

In fact everyone is afraid to confront Iran. Perhaps Iran has an atomic bomb, one that disappeared from Ukraine.

The errors that the West and Russia are making is to believe that they may arrive to a MAD situation and that will dissuade the Iranians to use their nuclear arsenal in the future. They are disregarding the fact that the Iranians are calling for the Mahdi / Hidden Imam that must come at the time of Gog/MiGog.

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steven L • Feb 14, 2015 at 22:35

All the US Presidents for the past 38 years are guilty for their failure to address nuke and terrorism.
For the past 15 to 20 years Netanyahu sounded the alarm. The US Presidents DID NOT care.
Will the US Congress care?

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Philip Smeeton • Feb 14, 2015 at 06:33

It is obvious, as the will to stop them is absent, that Iran will develop nuclear weapons, and that Iran is a nation prepared to use them. Most likely in a surprise attack on Israel. With the collective mentality of a suicide bomber they do not care if they die. With many millions of Muslims spread across many countries, most Muslims will survive and the death of a few million is worth the removal of Israel from the map. There is the added fact that a nuclear weapon in a heavily sealed container can be shipped anywhere in the world and detonated. Most likely in a US city. We should not be expected to live with this fear, just as we should not be subjected to the homicidal whim of the domestic Muslim terrorist and or lunatic that would decapitate us in our homes or gun us down at the mall.

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Paul Winter • Feb 14, 2015 at 05:22

Bassam Tawil makes several good points regarding Obama's irresponsible actions. He, like almost everyone else, attributes Obama's actions to stubborn incompetence. Analysts should ask themselves if Obama's actions are not in fact his conscious decision to undermine the West.

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Michel Olivier • Feb 13, 2015 at 16:34

Iran must have nuclear weapons by now. They started their program over ten years ago in a fully equipped nuclear wide world. Seventy four years ago USA went from zero to nuclear weapons in about three and a half years. It's unclear what the "negotiations" with Iran are really about. As ostensibly purposed, they are absurd.

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Bill Fairhall • Feb 13, 2015 at 13:15

You described the situation exactly as it is. The vast majority in the west have no comprehension of the Islamic mindset and what it actually wants to achieve. We truly are sheep being led to slaughter not by force but ignorance. Geert Wilders has given us fair warning.

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David Walker • Feb 13, 2015 at 13:12

So the states with the power to intervene sit around twiddling their thumbs and while another global scale aggressor sharpens its weapons and plans on global expansion on a scale to equal that of the Third Reich.

Appeasement didn't work in the 1930s with Nazi Germany, it won't work with the equally toxic Islamist regime in Tehran in the 2020s either.

Hitler didn't have nuclear weapons and ICBMs, if someone doesn't intervene soon, the mad Mullahs in Tehran will.

Thank God Israel is guarding our backs, just as she has done on a number of occasions in the past. Not as the cowardly, basically antisemitic nations in the West will thank her for raking their chestnuts out of the fire, of course.

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Michael O'Connor • Feb 13, 2015 at 11:29

This is so true the above article and as my tile says "None so blind as those who cannot see." the amount of responsible Presidents, MKs, MPs they will not accept how close we are for IRAN developing the BOMB, along with Putin's Ukraine etc we get closer and closer to WW3 it's no joke. ISIL, Islam we are inside the melting pot it only needs lighting, then it's goodbye to one and all.

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depressed • Feb 13, 2015 at 11:27

I for one do not believe Obama can be that stupid to ignore events in the Muslim world. This is a man who has a negative opinion concerning his own country, and a very favorable view of Islam. Can this view be supported by past Muslim history or is he aiding and abetting the destruction of Western civilization. 500 years ago Western civilization had to expel Muslims from the European continent to safeguard their way of life. Today we see a return of Muslims and a threat to Western civilization. Obama only sees Islam through rose colored lenses, blood flowing on the streets of Europe have already begun. Political correctness and left-wing platitudes concerning Islam only helps the destruction of the West.

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Caterina Farkash • Feb 13, 2015 at 09:38

Mr Tawil - I want to thank you for your articles.
I really hope -that people will open their eyes and years, and began using the gifts they have received: the heart to fell and the mind to think.....It is time to learn from history, and let us - every one of us - leave a peacful life with our families, friends, and all the beautiful creations on this planet. IT IS TIME TO TAKE RESPONSIBILITY FOR OUR LIVES !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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Barbara Griffith

Caterina Farkash • Feb 14, 2015 at 19:32

What's wrong with the US is the fact that they are to worried about climate change to really notice what is happening in the Middle East. Its halfway around the globe so they feel they are safe from attacks. What happened on 9/11 is a distant memory but the fact is that our borders are a disaster waiting to happen and it will if people don't wake up. The Clarion Project was the first organization that happened to be on Fox news that was telling the world about the terrorist training camps in at least 22 different locations in the US, they had video to prove it. Pray tell me, just where is the FBI in all of this? There was some mention of it being on private property but just when did private property ever stop the FBI from from moving on crooks? In one film clip it had two men outside one showing the other how to come up behind their victim and slash the throat. You wonder if they have all been investigated and found to be role playing harmless war games, we will never know.

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Michael Baker • Feb 13, 2015 at 09:25

Thank you Bassam for your excellent article about the reality of the situation in the Middle East. The article provides serious food for thought in term of the future world order. Throughout the West thinking people do not understand the lack of proper response to prevent the worst-case scenario. The only conclusion you can make like in the the 1930s we are slowly sliding towards a Third World War but this time with nuclear weapons readily available.

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Richard Gordon • Feb 13, 2015 at 07:53

If Obama's main goal is a weakening of the USA, as expounded in D'Souza's 2016: Obama's America. Then he will have attained his personally desired legacy by these inactions. By this measure, he has been extremely successful, and is probably patting himself on the back.

The general presumption of commentators that he is "concerned about his legacy" prevents them from thinking the situation through and coming up with more than "Obama shoulds". Obama won't. So what should WE do?

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James Luce • Feb 13, 2015 at 07:42

Two points:
1. Comparing the Munich Pact with a hypothetical agreement with Iran is extremely apt. The text of the Munich Pact makes absolutely no mention of Hitler renouncing any further territorial claims (See: http://avalon.law.yale.edu/imt/munich1.asp ) Chamberlain claimed that it did. The lie was obvious to anyone reading the document...which of course was not made public at the time. One can assume that the true text of any agreement reached with Iran will: a) not be made public b) will not in fact prevent Iran from continuing its atomic weapons program and c) be breached by Iran whenever it wants to do so. Christians seem to forget that the Koran expressly authorizes, indeed encourages, Muslims to swindle Infidels.

2. Iran is simply the modern name for Persia-Parthia. The Persian-Parthian Empires controlled most of the Middle East from 550 BC to 650 AD, with a few interruptions. Thereafter the Persians (now absorbed by Islam) were pushed out of what is modern day Jordan, Syria, Iraq, and Turkey, but continued to battle against the Ottoman Turks for control of those territories, never relinquishing its claims. Does any political leader in the West understand that Iran is operating under a cultural and political delusion of hegemony that has lasted intact for over 1,365 years? Do any of our leaders comprehend that Iran will never willingly give up its divinely ordained obligation to conquer the world? Apparently the answers to both these questions is "No".

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Hanna • Feb 13, 2015 at 06:40

Poor Obama. He has a "little" problem. He would love to have, as part of his (already damaged) legacy a DEAL with Iran. In his dreams he sees himself standing IN IRAN shaking hands with the Iranian leaders. Never mind the fact that THAT so-called DEAL will not be worth the paper it will be written on, just as that "peace in our time" paper. The problem is that ISRAEL and SOME in the West do not feel like being blown off the face of the earth by nuclear bombs. This time, instead of PEACE in our time it could end up THE END OUR TIME. Thank you Mr. Bassam Tawil.

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sylvie • Feb 13, 2015 at 05:45

Perhaps it is not naivete on Obama's part? Perhaps it is not even cowardice? Perhaps it is something much more sinister? Perhaps this is his strategy for allowing Iran to dominate, not only all the Islamic states, but the West as well? Why else would he be doing his utmost to oust Netanyahu and destroy Israel? Obama has to be stopped, and the only country that can stop him and Iran's nuclear race is Israel.

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