Fighting in the Caucasus: Erdogan's Ottoman Ambitions

by Con Coughlin
October 9, 2020 at 4:00 am

https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/16615/erdogan-armenia-azerbaijan

Translations of this item:

Turkey's support for Azerbaijan, which could prove to be decisive in the conflict, stems from Mr Erdogan's determination to recreate the glory of the Ottoman Empire, when Turkey formed the epicentre of the Muslim world.
The latest outbreak of violence -- the most serious to affect the region since the early 1990s -- began at the end of last month, after Azerbaijan was accused of launching a full-scale assault against Armenian positions in the mountainous enclave, prompting a full-scale mobilisation of Armenian forces.
Even so, Mr Erdogan's intervention in the Nagorno-Karabakh dispute puts him at odds with another major power with aspirations to increase its influence in the region, namely Russia.

As the bitter fighting intensifies between Christian Armenia and Muslim Azerbaijan over the disputed territory of Nagorno-Karabakh, it has emerged that Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is supplying the Azeris with weapons and mercenaries in their campaign to reclaim control of the enclave. Pictured: A part of the city of Stepanakert in Nagorno-Karabakh, damaged by artillery shelling, on October 8, 2020. (Photo by Aris Messinis/AFP via Getty Images)

The emergence of Turkey as a key player in the latest eruption of violence in the disputed Caucasus region of Nagorno-Karabakh needs to be seen within the context of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's ambition of recreating the Ottoman Empire.

As the bitter fighting intensifies between Christian Armenia and Muslim Azerbaijan over the disputed territory in the Caucasus Mountains, it has emerged that Mr Erdogan is supplying the Azeris with weapons and mercenaries in their campaign to reclaim control of the enclave.

Apart from supplying conventional weapons, there have been suggestions that Turkish-made cluster bombs -- which are banned under international law -- have been used in attacks on Armenian positions.

In addition, Ankara has been accused of sending Syrian rebels to Azerbaijan to help with its campaign to reclaim the enclave.

Turkey's support for Azerbaijan, which could prove to be decisive in the conflict, stems from Mr Erdogan's determination to recreate the glory of the Ottoman Empire, when Turkey formed the epicentre of the Muslim world.

Although the territory that now constitutes modern Azerbaijan was never under direct Ottoman control, the local tribes came under the influence of Muslim Turks, to the extent that many Azeris today speak a form of Turkish dialect.

More recently the bond between Turkey and Azerbaijan has resulted in the two countries undertaking joint military exercises on a regular basis.

Never one to miss an opportunity to expand Turkey's influence in the Muslim world, Mr Erdogan has been quick to lend his backing to Azerbaijan in its bid to reclaim control over Nagorno-Karabakh.

Within hours of the conflict erupting, the Turkish president tweeted, "The Turkish people will support our Azerbaijani brothers with all our means as always," adding for good measure that Armenia was "the biggest threat to regional peace."

The dispute over Nagorno-Karabakh dates back to the collapse of the Soviet Union in the early 1990s when the territory, whose population is primarily Armenian, opted to break away from the control of neighbouring Azerbaijan, a country composed mainly of Shiite Muslims.

The decision prompted a bitter war between Azerbaijan and Armenia in 1992 after both countries gained independence from the Soviet Union, claiming the lives of an estimated 30,000 people.

Since then an uneasy truce has settled on the region as a result of a Russian-brokered ceasefire in 1994.

The latest outbreak of violence -- the most serious to affect the region since the early 1990s -- began at the end of last month, after Azerbaijan was accused of launching a full-scale assault against Armenian positions in the mountainous enclave, prompting a full-scale mobilisation of Armenian forces.

During the recent fighting, it is estimated that more than 300 people have been killed and thousands forced from their homes as the fighting has intensified.

On one level, Turkey's support for Azerbaijan is not surprising in view of its long and troubled relationship with the Armenian people, with the Turks accused of being responsible the systematic mass murder and expulsion of around 1.5 million Armenians during the last days of the Ottoman Empire at the end of the First World War.

Even so, Mr Erdogan's intervention in the Nagorno-Karabakh dispute puts him at odds with another major power with aspirations to increase its influence in the region, namely Russia.

Russia regards Armenia as an important regional ally, and maintains an important military base at the country's second largest city, Gyumri.

Consequently, Mr Erdogan needs to proceed with caution so far as his support for Azerbaijan is concerned. Otherwise he could find that Russian interest in the Caucasus presents a formidable obstacle to his plans to recreate Turkey's Ottoman glory.

Con Coughlin is the Telegraph's Defence and Foreign Affairs Editor and a Distinguished Senior Fellow at Gatestone Institute.

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Comment on this item

11 Reader Comments

Constantine • Oct 12, 2020 at 05:09

Erdogan is entering where others are letting him in. And as far his political-soulmate, Merkel's Germany is managing Europe, no sanctions will come. If a bigger scaled war comes caused by Turkey, Germany and her satellites will have to take the responsibility, especially if it happens on EU soil, sea or airspace. Germany will make more money by letting evil Turkey play the thief in the area than apply sanctions. I hope some countries strike Turkey militarily so they put an end on it. Erdogan's friend Trump is making stage performances to prove his immortality against COVID.
Turkish army? When did we see it? They are rhetorically strong, never proved it on battle. They use Jihadists and mercenaries to kill in the name of Turkish agenda.
Turkey equals death, terror, fear, misery, sadness and more refugees.

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shloime • Oct 11, 2020 at 01:05

Isn't Nagorno-Karabakh recognized as Azeri territory with an ethnic Armenian population? it wouldn't make sense for Azerbaijan to just attack territory which it already rules.

So who has started stoking the fires of separatism and why? Armenia has only just warmed up its diplomatic relations with Israel, and it's unlikely that Russia wants another shooting war at the moment.

The most likely cause is Iran, which is starting to feel a little hemmed in by countries friendly to Israel. disrupting Azerbaijan may be a tactic to divert attention from their nuclear programme, and to upset any plans for military cooperation on their northern frontier.

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Astrid

shloime • Oct 11, 2020 at 12:15

Well, I think your question includes some premises that need clarification

The so called fires of separatism flared up 27 years ago, and not now.

Nagorno-Karabakh, while considered part of Azerbaijan, has been de-facto separate and independent from Azerbaijan for 27 years already. So it was the Azeri side that was unhappy with the status quo and has been vowing to change it by any means necessary for the past years and getting ready to change it by upgrading its military etc etc and was clearly interested to resume the fighting. And Turkey has clearly been egging them on as well, if you follow Erdogan's stance on this.

Surprisingly enough, Iran here has not been a bad player and would have preferred for the conflict to stay dormant. Iran has a big number of ethnic Turkish population i.e. Azeris on its territory, which could be used by Azerbaijan and Turkey to distabalise Iran. Erdogan has clearly been the most interested and aggressive new player in the region. He's made no secret of it BTW. His statement on behalf of Azerbajani people are quite direct and belligerent.

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A. J, Sarian • Oct 9, 2020 at 16:37

Mr. Coughlin, do not be afraid to use the term GENOCIDE. The NY Times just did. Political correctness is an anachronism at this stage of events.

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William Downey • Oct 9, 2020 at 11:39

To further complicate the conflict is the presence of Turkish Air Force fighter aircraft that have remained in Azerbijan since the conclusion of joint exercises between Turkey and Azerbijan.

President Putin however, has said that Russia would not intervene militarily unless Armenia was invaded and has urged talks. A wild card for Russia would be an attack on the Russian base in Armenia resulting in casualities.

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cammo99 • Oct 9, 2020 at 08:59

The real question is how much oil and gas does Erdogan expect as a reward for supporting the Azeri's in this? Turkey is oil dependent on Russia the last I heard. The Turks after losing their bid to participate in the Ashkelon pipeline by direct Russian action invading Georgia putting an end to that terminal, they have contested Israel for gas deposits in the Med and now Greeks. Remember when the USA stated as a matter of national security we would defend out access to oil in and through the Gulf?

And Russia is jealous of every drop of oil that comes from the Caucus having fought wars in Chechnya for terminals, invaded Georgia to stop and justified its support for Russian rebels through the Ukraine, in part as Kiev's failure to pay off debts on oil they have access to through pipelines to Europe from Russia. They backed Assad and the Iranians to complete another pipeline and terminal through the Persian corridor from Tehran to Beirut. That corridor included a boundary with Turkey.

I would not lay this all on Erdogan, not with the Russian oligarchs who control over 35% of the oil in the entire region are still on watch and the Vagner group is available. These are nations that use cluster bombs and have no access to smart technologies. They have built no solar farms or have massive windmill farms in "rural" parts of their states. And their is no evidence they will anytime soon. Just saying. And nuclear civilian energy, Chernobyl.

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Barry • Oct 9, 2020 at 08:15

It seems (despite Turkey), Armenians are capable of defending themselves, but they are not capable of making the Azeris give up their dream of retaking the region and suppressing its Armenian population. A similar dynamic to the Israel-Arab conflict! And I wonder if Russia is really such an ally to the Armenians as the Azeris have the oil. And where is the US on this?

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lenin chigbundu

Barry • Oct 9, 2020 at 12:19

I am happy you have mentioned this issue in relation to to the current crisis. The powerful truth is that the leaders are hostage to the emotions of their electorates. The Armenians will never let the Azeris return because of the atrocities perpetrated by the Azeris against the Armenians in the last fighting. People in that region engage in blood feuds; the same answer the Israelis will proffer for not returning territories to the Palestinians...pogroms and insane massacres occurred. People will not forget and forgive, the blood feud will run at its fullest course for centuries on end. The Azeri homesteads were destroyed, not taken over, in an attempt to obliterate the bloody memories of the 1980s. There are some Azeris living among the Armenians who were not involved in the communal bloodletting. They have nothing to fear.

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Astrid

Barry • Oct 11, 2020 at 12:47

Russia is playing its own dirty game here. Putin was not happy with the peaceful revolution in Armenia in 2018, as a result of which Armenians got rid of Putin's KGB puppet in Armenia and elected an independent president who is trying to get rid of corruption and institute democracy in the country and that's enough to piss of Russia. So they are just trying to get rid of the president of Armenia without getting their hands dirty. No surprise there, Russia has never been a reliable ally, they have always abandoned Armenians in the most crucial moments of their history.

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Duray Polat • Oct 9, 2020 at 06:36

And why Israel is supplying Azerbaijan with weapons as a result of which Armenia
withdrawn its ambassador from Tel Aviv?

The real aggressor that is Armenia still occupying the Azerbaijani territories. See all the UN Security Council resolutions since 1990's.

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Astrid

Duray Polat • Oct 11, 2020 at 14:25

Well saying Nagorno-Karabakh is Azeri land according to UN and that's it, is like saying that Israel should retreat to its pre 1967 borders since that's what international law demands.

It is much more complex. The "Nagorno-Karabakh Autonomous Region" was created by the decision of Stalin. When they included it in Soviet Azerbaijan (BTW also created by soviet regime at the time) over 94 percent of the population were Armenians residing on their historic homeland. Nagorno-Karabakh did a referendum back in the 1990s and declared its independence following the same legal basis by which Azerbaijan declared its own independence from Soviet Union the more or less the same time period.

Furthermore the de-facto republic was created as a result of a defensive war in an attempt to protect the Armenian population of the region from being ethnically cleansed by the Azeri side and the fact that it has been functioning as a de-facto separate state for over 27 years cannot be totally ignored either.

But most importantly Armenian's main argument that if Azerbaijan takes control of the land it will inevitably result in an ethnic cleansing of all the Armenians and a humanitarian disaster cannot be easily discarded. Not to mention the historic fallout of the Armenian genocide perpetrated by Turkey who seems to have returned to the region 100 years later to execute the "final solution to the Armenian problem"

Bear in mind that the current president of Azerbaijan is an authoritarian dictator and and Erdogan-buddy and has been openly and consistently propagating ethnic hatred towards Armenians. To give an example they elevated a bloodthirsty murderer like Ramil Safarov to a hero's status and so on and so forth.

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